tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19222145266042235202024-03-05T11:38:48.598+01:00International-Files: Francesco Rossi's blogFrancesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.comBlogger93125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-12978584468657374752013-09-03T18:50:00.002+02:002013-09-03T18:53:11.709+02:00MAGGIORANZE BULGARE IN PROTESTA<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVkF-z8JoEtw33nOY9P6vZrRJ_1pxNfPuL9fxPg-E6nDjpsg556Ups_MAwaZIllBZeO7CxBoMsosLdSZAYMQ59HTBvDUiS2n4C1q_2SXirjFzWZC6D19thAkHziYKLgh7jBqOgdEv1W_hd/s1600/bulgaria_3_luglio_2013.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVkF-z8JoEtw33nOY9P6vZrRJ_1pxNfPuL9fxPg-E6nDjpsg556Ups_MAwaZIllBZeO7CxBoMsosLdSZAYMQ59HTBvDUiS2n4C1q_2SXirjFzWZC6D19thAkHziYKLgh7jBqOgdEv1W_hd/s320/bulgaria_3_luglio_2013.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Un paese relativamente piccolo e situato alla periferia dell’Europa
qual è la Bulgaria raramente viene fatta oggetto dell’attenzione dei
media internazionali. Il 24 luglio scorso, però, è stata un’eccezione:
su tutti i giornali e i siti europei e americani si potevano vedere
allarmanti immagini di Sofia. Il motivo era altrettanto allarmante: la
notte precedente la polizia aveva respinto con grande violenza i
dimostranti che avevano circondato il Parlamento. Cosa c’è dietro questi
avvenimenti?<br />
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<span id="more-15259"></span>Circa quaranta giorni fa, enormi
dimostrazioni di piazza erano un avvenimento quotidiano a Sofia. I
partecipanti, che comprendevano numerosi studenti liceali e
universitari, erano indignati dal fatto che il nuovo governo aveva fatto
scelte alquanto discutibili per ricoprire importanti cariche
amministrative; tra di esse, aveva particolarmente colpito la nomina di
un notorio imprenditore del mondo dei media alla guida dei potenti
servizi segreti interni del paese. Questa decisione, e altre del
medesimo tenore, sono state considerate sintomi evidenti degli
inestricabili legami tra l’elite politica e diversi circoli affaristici
che si muovono ai limiti della legalità. Le proteste sono chiaramente
non di parte, giacché la gran parte dei dimostranti rifiuta di
identificarsi con il partito di opposizione e accusa l’intera classe
politica di tendere alla corruzione. È per questo che, per descrivere
l’attuale sistema in Bulgaria, preferisco il termine “cleptocrazia” – da
intendersi come un sinonimo più elegante di “clientelismo” – giacché
quello di arricchirsi senza troppi scrupoli a spese della collettività è
stato il tratto caratteristico dell’elite politico-economica per gli
ultimi 23 anni.<br />
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La transizione della Bulgaria dal socialismo reale è stato un
tragitto piuttosto complicato. Tutto è iniziato nel 1989, quando – a
differenza di quanto è avvenuto in paesi dell’Europa centrale come la
Cecoslovacchia o la Polonia – l’elite comunista ha architettato un
“ricambio” del vecchio regime, sostituendolo con nuove strutture nelle
quali i vecchi personaggi del partito comunista e delle sue
organizzazioni sussidiarie continuavano ad occupare le “alture
dominanti” dell’economia e del sistema politico. Il vecchio partito
comunista, principale membro dell’attuale coalizione di governo, ha
cambiato il proprio nome in Partito Socialista Bulgaro e sostituito
alcuni dirigenti con facce nuove ma, a differenza della gran parte dei
vecchi partiti comunisti dell’Europa centrale, quello bulgaro non è mai
diventato un’organizzazione social-democratica di stato europeo
occidentale. Il ricordo dei “bei vecchi tempi”, quando la Bulgaria era
il satellite sovietico più fedele, continuano a contraddistinguere la
retorica del partito. Ovviamente il quadro non è del tutto cupo: dopo la
devastante iper-inflazione del 1996-97 sono stati ottenuti diversi
notevoli successi in campo macroeconomico: ad esempio, nel 1997 il Fondo
Monetario Internazionale ha assistito il paese nella creazione di una <i>currency board</i>,
che ha fissato il tasso di cambio del lev bulgaro rispetto al marco
tedesco (e successivamente all’euro), con il risultato che da allora il
paese gode di una notevole stabilità monetaria. Il debito pubblico si è
drasticamente ridotto e oggi è pari al 18 per cento del PIL, uno dei
valori più bassi nell’Unione Europea (incidentalmente, molti economisti e
numerosi dimostranti temono che questo risultato sia messo a
repentaglio dalla proposta di bilancio avanzata dal nuovo governo e
dalla riattivazione di un progetto per la costruzione di una centrale
nucleare guidata da una conglomerata russa). La Bulgaria, inoltre, ha
tra le tasse più ridotte nell’Unione Europea, con un’aliquota fissa (<i>flat tax</i>)
del 10 per cento per l’imposta sul reddito sia delle persone fisiche,
sia delle imprese. Tuttavia nessun governo è riuscito a sciogliere
l’intreccio tra le strutture di stampo mafioso che si annidano in buona
parte dell’economia del paese e l’elite politica, a dispetto dei
tentativi (peraltro sporadici e per lo più inefficaci) di esercitare
pressioni dall’esterno. La qualità delle istituzioni bulgare è quindi
scadente, anche se paragonata a quella dei paesi confinanti. Per questo,
dopo che la bolla speculativa immobiliare ed edilizia si è sgonfiata
nel 2009, gli investitori esteri sono apparsi riluttanti ad impegnarsi
in nuovi progetti e l’afflusso di nuovi capitali stranieri si è
notevolmente ridotto.<br />
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Si può dire che le proteste in Bulgaria siano uniche nel loro genere?
Alcuni commentatori internazionali hanno proposto analogie con i
recenti avvenimenti in Egitto e in Grecia, ma ovviamente vi sono
notevoli differenze: in Bulgaria, a differenza dell’Egitto, non vi sono
questioni religiose; inoltre non vi è niente che possa essere paragonato
alle strutture militari egiziane. A differenza della Grecia, invece,
nelle proteste non si ravvisano sentimenti anti-occidentali, anzi: i
dimostranti sono entusiasti del sostegno che ricevono dai media
stranieri e dagli ambasciatori dei paesi dell’Unione Europea che, nelle
ultime settimane, sono stati sorprendentemente poco diplomatici nei
confronti del governo. Tuttavia potrebbero esservi alcune somiglianze
con le proteste di altri paesi del Mediterraneo. I dimostranti di ogni
età hanno levato la voce per dire “basta!” all’elite di tutti i partiti.
È ancora possibile che la transizione della Bulgaria abbia un lieto
fine, che ai miei occhi sarebbe rappresentato da un avvicinamento, per
quanto lento, all’ideale di un ordine politico e sociale libero,
consistente di una cornice di <i>rule of law</i> che racchiude
un’economia di libero mercato in regime di concorrenza, una democrazia
funzionante e una vivace società civile. Per esser chiari, questo
significa l’esatto opposto della trasformazione della Bulgaria in una
copia in sedicesimo della Russia putiniana, una trasformazione che forse
alberga ancora nelle fantasie di alcuni dei russofili di oggigiorno a
Sofia. Quello che anima tanti dei dimostranti nelle strade di Sofia è il
sogno di far diventare la Bulgaria semplicemente un normale paese
europeo, magari con un modesto livello di vita paragonabile a quello
delle nostre ex-”repubbliche sorelle” dell’Europa centrale. È un’utopia?
Le prossime settimane e mesi potrebbero rivelarsi decisive per
rispondere a questa domanda.</div>
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(Fonte: <a href="http://www.leoniblog.it/2013/08/03/una-rivolta-contro-la-cleptocrazia-attesa-da-tempo-sulle-proteste-in-bulgaria-di-stefan-kolev/" target="_blank">Leoni Blog</a>) </div>
Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-4915640137856321052013-02-04T12:22:00.004+01:002013-02-04T12:25:35.995+01:00CONFLITTI INTRASTATALI IN AFRICA. (Africa intrastate violence) <div style="text-align: justify;">
I chart the outbreak of intrastate violence from 1989 to 2010 in a part
of the world that has become synonymous with civil wars and intrastate
conflict – i.e., Sub-Saharan Africa. (Note: The red points on the map
represent conflicts with over 1,000 deaths.)</div>
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Source: <a href="http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Digital-Library/Articles/Special-Feature/Detail/?lng=en&id=158597&contextid774=158597&contextid775=158596&tabid=1453496062" target="_blank">ISN </a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKeQbrAG1jhHU1FYGXLVFgQ1LYfXcxisT57Fslmr5nDbJ3ACkwjMVQN_ELR7fbVuYMpz6dSdi64HUFVL09UpXNZUqlvjHzqSsAXmjDphSmFBu8KhzfS6rOBq77EnIXSDzpqz0rhqoqJ9sX/s1600/Immagine.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="345" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKeQbrAG1jhHU1FYGXLVFgQ1LYfXcxisT57Fslmr5nDbJ3ACkwjMVQN_ELR7fbVuYMpz6dSdi64HUFVL09UpXNZUqlvjHzqSsAXmjDphSmFBu8KhzfS6rOBq77EnIXSDzpqz0rhqoqJ9sX/s400/Immagine.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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Image source: <a href="http://www.ucdp.uu.se/ged/index.php" target="_blank">Uppsala Universitet</a></div>
Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-17334577665352723012012-11-08T18:23:00.000+01:002012-11-08T18:25:18.894+01:00DOPO LA TIRANNIA. (After the tyranny)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2V-s11fVe3XXqcxi-gy9cLOSYnmcqXo7NS2r9tSCYSUvxpzS47UlXL6ckkZFkiCX-NnVH5Z_pqUKnVeefNZFEBvQgs-AhqU-sodFGFenVZfZrRI_XxQC3DFQm8TxwsOWUOw0Zv_I100zF/s1600/aladeen.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2V-s11fVe3XXqcxi-gy9cLOSYnmcqXo7NS2r9tSCYSUvxpzS47UlXL6ckkZFkiCX-NnVH5Z_pqUKnVeefNZFEBvQgs-AhqU-sodFGFenVZfZrRI_XxQC3DFQm8TxwsOWUOw0Zv_I100zF/s320/aladeen.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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After the shooting stopped in 1945, thousands of children and teenagers in Berlin’s ruins were left to their own devices. One in five schoolchildren had lost a parent. Despair gripped the adults in the capital, all of which was still under Soviet control.</div>
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In the western district of Neukölln, a group of young people decided to take matters into their own hands. Announcing on the day before the Allied victory that they would help rebuild the city, they formed a civic group and called it “anti-fascist.” Two weeks later, they had 600 members, had cleared the rubble from two sports stadiums and had organized five orphanages.</div>
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Inspired by their example, other young Germans began organizing similar anti-fascist groups in Berlin, but they didn’t last long. On July 31, the Soviet Military Administration banned all unregistered organizations. After that, many groups, clubs and associations were denied permission to exist.</div>
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This decision was not an aberration. Newly opened archives show that the persecution of civic activists, frequently enforced by violence, often took precedence over Communist parties’ other political and economic goals in the Soviet bloc at that time. Selective violence was carefully aimed at elites — intellectuals, businessmen, priests, police officers, anti-Nazi partisans — and above all at anyone capable of founding and leading any kind of spontaneous organization, no matter how apolitical. Scout groups, Freemasons and Catholic youth leaders all figure among the early victims of these regimes.</div>
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In later decades, this Soviet pattern of “totalitarianization” — the pursuit of total control over all aspects of public life — was widely imitated. Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and Muammar el-Qaddafi’s Libya got Soviet and East German advice on secret police methods, as did Chinese, Egyptian, Syrian, Angolan, Cuban and North Korean governments on those and other aspects of societal control.</div>
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As we now know, these methods never worked as they were meant to do in Eastern Europe, and they were never entirely successful in Asia, Africa, Latin America or, as we’ve lately seen, in the Arab world. Nevertheless, they did great damage.</div>
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In their drive for power, the Bolsheviks and their East European acolytes eliminated or undermined churches, charities, newspapers, guilds, literary and educational societies, companies and retail shops, stock markets, unions, banks, sports clubs and centuries-old universities. If nothing else, Eastern Europe’s postwar history proves just how fragile human organizations are. If enough people are sufficiently determined, they can utterly destroy ancient and seemingly permanent legal, political, educational and religious institutions of all kinds.</div>
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As a result of this damage, post-Communist countries required far more than elections, political campaigns and political parties to become functioning liberal societies again, and far more than a few economic reforms to become prosperous. They also needed independent media, private enterprise, flourishing civic life, a legal and regulatory system, and a culture that tolerated independent groups and organizations.</div>
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Not accidentally, the most successful post-Communist states have been those that managed to preserve some elements of civil society throughout the Communist period, or were eager to emulate Western Europe’s laws and attitudes concerning civic culture. The least successful are those, like Russia, where even the memory of grass-roots civil society had faded by 1991.</div>
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Although post-totalitarian Europe has little in common with the Arab world culturally and politically, the two regions do share this: their dictators repressed (or tried to repress) civic activism and independent organizations. One reason the Muslim Brotherhood and radical Islamists have emerged in the post-revolutionary Arab world with so much political power and popular support is that so much of their potential competition was destroyed.</div>
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Islamists proved more resilient to repression for many reasons — because their adherents were motivated by faith as well as civic spirit, because they had cross-border links and financing from the Persian Gulf states — and now, in some places, they are the only groups with any organization or reputation on the ground.</div>
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But as they contend for power, they pose large questions for the Middle East. Will they recreate the methods of the autocracies and suppress other organizations? Or will they encourage a wider range of civic activism? That argument is now unfolding: some inside Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood want the group to remain cohesive, univocal and dominant, while others push for more diversity in both the group and the country.</div>
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Elsewhere — though you wouldn’t know it from the headlines — there are signs of wider social mobilization. The single most heartening encounter I had on a trip to Libya last spring was with a group called Cleaning Up Tripoli, which organizes volunteer brigades of trash collectors. Its leader was negotiating with the city sanitation department over the site of a new dump, a straightforward effort that the young anti-fascists of 1945 Berlin would have approved.</div>
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Perhaps such efforts will help Libya build a political culture that is democratic in the best sense — with citizens participating in decisions that affect them. But the infrastructure required for such activity is complex. To sustain it, Libya will need good laws on nonprofit organizations, regulation of charitable donations, a press that is free and professional enough to chronicle such efforts, and government officials who respond to the public.</div>
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Though I’d like to believe otherwise, the outside world is of limited use in supporting such changes. Private and government organizations can give material help, and nongovernmental organizations can advise, particularly on legal and regulatory issues that often are ignored. Officials and activists who have lived through turbulent transitions elsewhere can share experiences, as Poles and Czechs now do with Tunisians and Egyptians.</div>
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But above all, a repressed society needs a motivated populace if it is to become politically vibrant again. To be more precise, it needs patriotism, historical consciousness, education, ambition, optimism and, especially, patience. The destruction wrought by totalitarian governments always takes decades even generations to repair. </div>
(<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/opinion/sunday/the-dead-weight-of-past-dictatorships.html?smid=tw-share&pagewanted=all&_r=1&" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>)Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-49132947003389415812012-06-22T12:33:00.001+02:002012-06-22T12:33:20.445+02:00ZANZARE DRONI. (Drone mosquitos)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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It's been several years since the rumors and sightings of insect sized micro drones started popping up around the world.<br />
<br />
Vanessa
Alarcon was a college student when she attended a 2007 anti-war protest
in Washington, D.C. and heard someone shout, "Oh my God, look at
those."<br />
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"I look up and I'm like, 'What the hell is
that?'" she told The Washington Post. "They looked like dragonflies or
little helicopters. But I mean, those are not insects," she continued.<br />
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A lawyer there at the time confirmed they looked like dragonflies, but that they "definitely weren't insects".<br />
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And he's probably right.<br />
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In
2006 Flight International reported that the CIA had been developing
micro UAVs as far back as the 1970s and had a mock-up in its Langley
headquarters since 2003.<br />
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While we can go on listing
roachbots, swarming nano drones, and synchronized MIT robots — private
trader and former software engineer Alan Lovejoy points out that the
future of nano drones could become even more unsettling.<br />
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Lovejoy
found this CGI mock up of a mosquito drone equipped with the 'ability'
to take DNA samples or possible inject objects beneath the skin.<br />
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According to Lovejoy:<br />
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<i>Such
a device could be controlled from a great distance and is equipped with
a camera, microphone. It could land on you and then use its needle to
take a DNA sample with the pain of a mosquito bite. Or it could inject a
micro RFID tracking device under your skin.<br /><br />It could land on you
and stay, so that you take it with you into your home. Or it could fly
into a building through a window. There are well-funded research
projects working on such devices with such capabilities</i>.</div>
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(<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-future-of-micro-drones-is-getting-pretty-scary-according-to-alan-lovejoy-2012-6" target="_blank">BusinessInsider</a>)</div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-50721843014669651762012-04-13T00:44:00.003+02:002012-04-13T00:49:55.622+02:00VIAGGIO NELLA FORESTA DEI SUICIDI. (Inside the forest of suicides)<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu2IzZGyQHaKo41Bio-FQLGFhmCDMWCsWRyLFR3Ox_nuoG1uIDmKWdSIMGBgmpsqiMOh55vdqyK9jgqMHWDXxBVxjTnPXIRGjDN9HhtCrtTQJELtli32GIQuaaSW0Fbn_PH20qyQvCTxM-/s1600/aokigahara_suicidi_giappone.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 292px; height: 219px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu2IzZGyQHaKo41Bio-FQLGFhmCDMWCsWRyLFR3Ox_nuoG1uIDmKWdSIMGBgmpsqiMOh55vdqyK9jgqMHWDXxBVxjTnPXIRGjDN9HhtCrtTQJELtli32GIQuaaSW0Fbn_PH20qyQvCTxM-/s320/aokigahara_suicidi_giappone.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5730650227894172306" border="0" /></a>La foresta di Aokigara è un posto solitario dove morire.<br /><div style="text-align: justify;">La vegetazione è molto fitta in questo luogo situato ai piedi del monte giapponese Fuji ed è facile scomparire misteriosamente nel verde senza che qualcuno se ne accorga. Ogni anno le autorità rimuovono centinaia di corpi morti: è il posto eletto per suicidarsi dalla popolazione del posto. Anche se comunque moltissimi corpi possono rimanere nascosti nella foresta anche per anni. Proprio questo il motivo per cui molte persone decidono di finire i propri giorni proprio qui, anche se il vero perché di questa scelta rimane comunque un mistero. E oggi proprio questo ha fatto nascere l’idea di un nuovo film ambientato proprio in questa foresta.<br />Azusa Hayano, geologo, ha studiato questa foresta per più di 30 anni e non riesce ancora a capacitarsi del fatto che le persone eleggano questo posto per togliersi la vita. Lavora qui da sempre e ha visto moltissimi cadaveri o è giunto quando ancora non era troppo tardi salvando qualche vita. Ha stimato che solo lui ha trovato più di 100 corpi negli ultimi 20 anni. Così ha deciso di assumere una troupe e girare un documentario: ha portato lo staff in un posto conosciuto come Jukai – il mare di alberi – per condividere davanti alle telecamere quello che ha imparato sino ad oggi.<br />Comunque Hayano non è ancora riuscito a trovare una risposta definitiva al perché le persone decidono di suicidarsi qui, se non l’idea che ci sono uomini così disperati da decidere di avventurarsi dentro la foresta con la consapevolezza che non torneranno più indietro.<br />Il film-documentario apre con un’auto abbandonata al limitare della foresta, una cartina lasciata sul cruscotto… Hayano davanti alla telecamera spiega che auto e cartina sono li da mesi.<br />“Credo che il proprietario si sia addentrato nella foresta e non sia mai tornato indietro” afferma l’uomo. “Probabilmente è entrato nella foresta con pensieri negativi che giravano nella sua testa e molte preoccupazioni”.<br />La telecamera nel frattempo mostra un cartello dell’associazione contro i suicidi che indica: “La tua vita è un dono prezioso. Pensa ai tuoi genitori, parenti e bambini. Non farti del male. Parla dei problemi che hai”. Sebbene i morti siano veramente molti, questo cartello ha comunque fatto cambiare idea ad alcuni. Altri, non sicuri di essere pronti a morire, spesso lasciano dei segnali dietro di loro, spiega Hayano, usando come pollicino le briciole di pane per avere un segnale sulla strada del ritorno e per essere in grado di tornare indietro non appena hanno un ripensamento.<br />“Nella maggior parte dei casi se segui il percorso segnato e i segnali riesci a tornare”. Nel frattempo Hayano si addentra insieme alla troupe nella foresta e arriva ad un campo con tende vuote, sicuramente non un buon segno. Nessun cadavere qui, solo una bambola appesa ad un albero. “Probabilmente questa persona era torturata dalla società” afferma l’uomo.<br />Ci sono alcuni segnali che saltano immediatamente all’occhio ad Hayano e che fanno pensare subito a qualcosa di negativo. L’uomo continua a camminare e trova una tenda gialla nel mezzo di una radura. All’interno un giovane uomo che dice di essere lì per fare un po’ di campeggio. Ma Hayano, che racconta alle telecamere della volta che ha dovuto convincere un uomo a non impiccarsi, conosce bene i suicidi e li sa riconoscere a colpo d’occhio. Dopo aver scambiato due chiacchiere con l’improbabile campeggiatore, lo lascia con queste parole: “Prenditi il tempo per pensare e cerca di vedere le cose in maniera positiva”.<br />Ma alla fine, arriva la conferma che non sempre è possibile salvare le persone. Ed ecco la scoperta di uno scheletro umano, ancora con vestiti e stivali.<br />Hayano, sebbene ne abbia visti tanti di cadaveri, sembra comunque scioccato. Il suo lavoro ha reso la vista di corpi di uomini suicidi qualcosa di particolare, di sentito. Secondo lui il suicidio in Giappone è cambiato con il passare degli anni. Dapprima era una tradizione e una pratica dei samurai, che commettevano il rituale ‘harakiri’ per preservare il proprio onore. Ad oggi è semplicemente un segnale di isolamento sociale e di problema del mondo moderno.<br />“Credo sia impossibile morire eroicamente commettendo un suicidio” ha affermato. Hayano crede che questa tendenza al suicidio sia un sintomo della crescente impersonalità e solitudine della vita che le persone vivono, estraniate in quel mondo che è internet.<br />E aggiunge: “Ora possiamo vivere la nostra vita tutto il giorno online. Ma quello di cui abbiamo bisogno è di vederci in faccia, leggere le espressioni sul viso, sentire la voce: solo così possiamo essere in grado di sentire le emozioni e di vivere.”<br />(<a href="http://www.noncipossocredere.com/2012/04/11/la-foresta-dei-suicidi-piu-di-100-corpi-trovati-ogni-anno/">NonCiPossoCredere.com</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-77837267478463091472012-02-06T19:36:00.003+01:002012-02-06T19:45:01.060+01:00BRAVEHEART RELOADED<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLdlPyppq05Axsy4v6IGTUkKF_qPEyFSL_vGfDY3eilIeXi-srhMGXOSSWk-PV2lODQk1C4VyxZev2gYpPJeQvNSu69bVbQm1fNioWWnYzT7iz0grLs17HVysP6pYDq3J9tbIeruHXNUuT/s1600/melgibsonbraveheartfreedom.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 258px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLdlPyppq05Axsy4v6IGTUkKF_qPEyFSL_vGfDY3eilIeXi-srhMGXOSSWk-PV2lODQk1C4VyxZev2gYpPJeQvNSu69bVbQm1fNioWWnYzT7iz0grLs17HVysP6pYDq3J9tbIeruHXNUuT/s320/melgibsonbraveheartfreedom.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5706095328817676290" border="0" /></a>Al Parlamento di Westminster i leader tanto dei partiti al Governo (conservatori e liberal-democratici) quanto dell’opposizione laburista scrollano il capo e dicono: «È l’ennesima “nuisance”, Edimburgo ricomincia a rompere».Il capoluogo scozzese ha la voce dall’inflessione un po’ gaelica di Alex Salmond,leader di quel Partito nazionalista scozzese (SNP) che nelle elezioni per il rinnovo del Parlamento di Holyrood dello scorso anno ha ottenuto la maggioranza di seggi, battendo i principali partiti. A Westminster sono sostanzialmente convinti che Salmond si stia montando la testa. Non gli basta, infatti, che nel 1997 Londra abbia messo in atto per la Scozia il piano di «devolution», ovvero quella formula di decentramento che ha consentito a Edimburgo di avere un sistema educativo, sanitario e giudiziario indipendenti, pur rimanendo nell’orbita del Parlamento centrale. Senza mezzi termini, Salmond ha chiesto e ottenuto di proporre ai cinque milioni e 200 mila scozzesi un referendum formulato sul quesito: «Siete d’accordo che la Scozia debba essere un Paese indipendente?». Per gli scozzesi le date contano, fanno parte della storia nazionale. Non a caso l’annuncio di Salmond è stato fatto lo scorso 25 gennaio, 253. anniversario della nascita di Robert Burns,poeta-eroe della letteratura scozzese. E la data scelta per il referendum, il 2014, richiama a Edimburgo due ricorrenze: la prima, fausta, è il 1314, anno in cui il re scozzese Robert I the Bruce, con la battaglia di Bannockburn, restaurò di fatto l’indipendenza della Scozia; la seconda, nefasta, il 1714, data della morte della regina Anna, ultima degli Stuart, quando Inghilterra e Scozia insieme furono poste sotto la sovranità degli Hannover. Che Edimburgo insorga nuovamente peraltro non stupisce, se si considera il fatto che l’Atto di Unione del lontano 1707 non fu mai completamente digerito dagli scozzesi. Fu una decisione intrapresa per necessità finanziarie, sostengono a Edimburgo, e chi firmò per conto della Scozia lo fece perché soggetto a tangenti. Amara la conclusione dello stesso poeta Burns: «Ci vendemmo per una manciata d’oro inglese», furono le sue parole.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="text-align: justify;">E prettamente finanziarie sembrano essere le ragioni che guidano anche oggi i nazionalisti scozzesi nelle loro rivendicazioni. «La Scozia – osserva Salmond – ha il sesto Prodotto interno lordo del pianeta. È ricca di risorse naturali. Esporta il whisky. Mentre l’economia del Regno Unito frena. E quando le Nazioni Unite sono nate accoglievano 50 Stati. Ora sono 200. Dieci si sono aggiunti nel 2004. Sei sono più piccoli di noi». Salmond ribadisce che, anche da indipendente, la Scozia considererà ancora la regina il suo capo di Stato, ma Edimburgo avrà il potere di distanziarsi da decisioni impopolari prese dal Governo centrale come quella che ha visto il Regno Unito affiancare gli americani nella guerra in Iraq. Andando al nocciolo, non è neppure casuale che il leader nazionalista usi i suoi archi da guerra contro Westminster in una fase di recessione economica e di pesante debito pubblico, da spartire con Londra. La dinamica del suo comportamento è duplice. Da una parte Salmond gioca di sponda mirando ad ottenere, nel caso di un no al referendum, almeno una Devo Max, cioè una «Devolution potenziata», ovvero la massima autonomia finanziaria all’interno di un sistema simile a quello federale. Dall’altra, si comprende che la massima posta in gioco è una sola: negli ultimi cinque anni – ha calcolato il leader scozzese – una Scozia indipendente, con pieno controllo dei proventi del gas e del petrolio del Mare del Nord, avrebbe avuto un avanzo primario di 7,5 miliardi di sterline.<br />Tali cifre spaventano Londra, che controbatte dicendo che senza l’Inghilterra la Scozia sarebbe debole e in un sistema globale conviene basarsi su un’economia integrata. I sondaggi dicono che la percentuale di scozzesi favorevoli all’indipendenza non sarebbe oggi superiore al 38%. Ma perché si possa mantenere questa percentuale minoritaria occorrerebbe indire il referendum al più presto possibile: non solo perché i mercati scalpitano ma soprattutto perché nell’arco di due anni le truppe del novello Braveheart, al richiamo di «Scots Wha Hae», l’inno che celebra gli eroi dell’indipendenza, potrebbero paurosamente infoltirsi.<br /></div>(<a href="http://www.cdt.ch/commenti-cdt/commento/57821/scozia-a-noi-il-petrolio.html">Corriere del Ticino</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-11488723885758387802012-01-23T11:41:00.003+01:002012-01-23T11:51:11.546+01:00L'ILLINOIS COME LA GRECIA. (Illinois like Greece)<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHYYLYj6Ge81-xhQItOmDRvXRZfHtkLup9qfYIkTBubzozdRDyYdPmGp7tgUFNwjR0CcOkaAZ-uHYTQZQygqQMDbqSf2GHE_66zrySDa4lvHj9GvCDdV0MNviSaF-E2E4iVYISE8hDErq3/s1600/index.jpeg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 222px; height: 117px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHYYLYj6Ge81-xhQItOmDRvXRZfHtkLup9qfYIkTBubzozdRDyYdPmGp7tgUFNwjR0CcOkaAZ-uHYTQZQygqQMDbqSf2GHE_66zrySDa4lvHj9GvCDdV0MNviSaF-E2E4iVYISE8hDErq3/s320/index.jpeg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5700777778450181874" border="0" /></a>As the Greek default (and it is a default no matter what they end up calling it) is finalized this week, the consensus seems to be that failure to reach a deal would cause a global financial apocalypse.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />That may be true. And if it is, why aren’t we more worried about Illinois? It’s more or less the same size as Greece, its finances are in the same generally catastrophic shape, and its leaders are just as feckless and dishonest. It owes tens of billions of dollars to various investors and stakeholders and will clearly have to stiff many of them at some point. The following article captures the “failed state” dilemma perfectly:<br /><br /> Dripping with red ink: Will anyone fix Illinois’ budget mess?<br /><br /> The question isn’t whether Illinois’ finances are in dreadful shape, it’s how to fix the problem. Or perhaps more accurately, will legislators have the political will to fix it when they return to Springfield for their spring session?<br /><br /> Even though the legislature and Gov. Pat Quinn last year imposed a temporary 67 percent state income tax increase, Quinn’s office expects to have a $500 million budget deficit this year.<br /><br /> Quinn is calling for a 9 percent cut in most areas of state government, except education and health care. But even with cuts at that level, the state would have a projected $800 million budget deficit for fiscal 2015, the year when most of the tax hike expires.<br /><br /> Quinn’s budget spokesman, Kelly Kraft, said the state’s fiscal situation is not pretty.<br /><br /> “These projections clearly demonstrate that action must be taken to control not only Medicaid costs but also (pension) costs, or all other areas of government will continue to be squeezed,” Kraft said.<br /><br /> Looking at the bigger picture, the state has a backlog of about $8.5 billion in unpaid bills and owes about $27 billion in outstanding bonds. And then there’s the roughly $80 billion owed to the state’s public employee pension funds.<br /><br /> Now, legislative leaders and Quinn are floating ideas to cut the two areas that account for the biggest chunks of the state budget — pension contributions and Medicaid.<br /><br /> In the proposed $33.7 billion budget for fiscal 2013, the state’s pension payment will be $5.3 billion, and Medicaid will cost taxpayers about $7 billion.<br /><br /> Proposals include reducing the benefits or the eligibility for Medicaid. On pensions, ideas include decreasing the benefits and increasing the contributions for current employees. A new pension system was approved last year, but it’s only for new employees, and there’s debate on whether the benefits for existing employees can legally be changed.<br /><br /> One of Quinn’s ideas for reducing the state’s pension costs is to shift the burden somewhere else: to local school districts.<br /><br /> “About 21 percent of what the state puts in … is for state employees,” Quinn told reporters earlier this month. “More than half of the money we contribute every year is for teachers who are outside of the city of Chicago — suburban and downstate teachers.”<br /><br /> Supporters of the idea say it would make school districts think twice about giving employees big raises at the end of their careers to boost their pensions. School districts would have some skin in the game if they had to pay for those pension boosts, rather than the state, the supporters say.<br /><br /> Opponents argue that shifting costs to local school districts isn’t real reform, and would just force them to increase local property taxes.<br /><br /> Improving the picture won’t be easy when the legislature reconvenes Jan. 31, particularly in an election year, when politicians might find it difficult to cut services for constituents or hurt the feelings of unions that represent state workers.<br /><br />To summarize, even after a massive tax increase Illinois is looking at a half a billion dollar deficit. That actually sounds manageable in the scheme of things — not even a billion dollars, chump change in this inflation-ravaged world. But the annual deficit is less of a threat than all those accumulated liabilities: “Looking at the bigger picture, the state has a backlog of about $8.5 billion in unpaid bills and owes about $27 billion in outstanding bonds. And then there’s the roughly $80 billion owed to the state’s public employee pension funds.”<br /><br />The reported deficit, in other words, doesn’t include all the stuff that should have appeared in past budgets but was hidden in order to get through the next election. How a state with a constitutional mandate to balance its budget can do this in the first place — and how an “unpaid bill” can be excluded from the annual budget — is a question for future prosecutors. But for investors it’s a clear sign that some sort of default is coming.<br /><br />Why then would anyone buy an Illinois municipal bond, or accept a state contract that requires future payments, or move a business to the state, or keep a business in the state, or do anything else that required faith in the willingness or ability of the state to pay its bills? The only possible answer is that Illinois isn’t Greece; it’s Spain or Italy, an entity so big and important that its failure is inconceivable. When it hits the wall, Washington will have no choice but to step in and cover its unfunded pensions and teacher salaries and muni bond interest. In the same way that a Spanish bond is really a German bond because Germany has no choice but to make good on it, the big insolvent US states are wards of the central government.<br /><br />The bottom line effect of all this stepping up and bailing out is to exchange a solvency/debt crisis for a currency crisis in which the markets at some point figure out that failed states are so numerous and their needs so great that the printing presses will never stop.<br />(<a href="http://dollarcollapse.com/the-economy/why-isnt-illinois-a-bigger-story-than-greece/">DollarCollapse.com</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-67263664336769666962011-12-20T12:22:00.003+01:002011-12-20T12:37:03.694+01:00LA LIBIA IMPOVERITA (CON L'URANIO). Lybia impoverished (because of uranium)<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_XDBCr3cTHH6ei7Bhwf-6qLpPcXksb78FSf2RWNS9oCUzfdLiujb-nZQjv-7Ik3sN6nTi1n0qCJZIHE-Zaa_l8R0Q4Th2cgITapuHy63pWKA9M6_B25H-n-aU8dr9caxXEm7A1vcxAhiP/s1600/zsuzsanna+jakabos+oro+400+misti.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 271px; height: 195px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_XDBCr3cTHH6ei7Bhwf-6qLpPcXksb78FSf2RWNS9oCUzfdLiujb-nZQjv-7Ik3sN6nTi1n0qCJZIHE-Zaa_l8R0Q4Th2cgITapuHy63pWKA9M6_B25H-n-aU8dr9caxXEm7A1vcxAhiP/s320/zsuzsanna+jakabos+oro+400+misti.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5688173119323385138" border="0" /></a>Abbiamo sentito Cameron e Hague dichiarare con fermezza che l'azione che aveva avuto luogo e le ragioni dietro quell'azione avevano principalmente motivi umanitari!<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />Quello che non abbiamo capito in Gran Bretagna è il fatto che il risultato finale non aveva nulla a che fare con il salvataggio di vite umane, ma piuttosto col mettere le mani sulle vaste proficue risorse naturali della Libia. L'intera campagna è diventata un bagno di sangue totale che avrebbe provocato più di 50.000 morti e molte molte migliaia di civili libici innocenti contaminati da radiazioni derivanti dalle armi usate dalle forze della coalizione. L'uso attivo di armi di distruzione di massa (ADM) ha praticamente ucciso la genetica della Libia, dei paesi limitrofi e oltre a causa dell'uso eccessivo di armi all'uranio impoverito.<br /><br />Ho perso il conto di quanti missili da crociera hanno lanciato fino ad oggi ma so che nelle fasi iniziali della guerra superavano i 300. Ad un certo punto, mentre osservavo questo atto malvagio di aggressione, ho contato 18 missili cruise lanciati in una sola notte. L'obiettivo era una base militare che guarda caso si trovava proprio accanto ad un quartiere densamente popolato di Tripoli. Per me fu ovvio in quel momento che sarebbero state contaminate molte migliaia di persone durante questo specifico attacco. Il fallout radioattivo di nanoparticelle potrebbe poi essere trasportato, non solo su questa zona, ma anche su tutta la città e oltre. Dal mio punto di vista, ho considerato l'utilizzo di numerosi missili Cruise all'interno di questo quartiere residenziale di Tripoli densamente popolato, come l'ultima goccia!<br /><br />La mia domanda a Obama, Cameron e Sarkozy ora sarebbe: quante vite pensate di aver salvato effettivamente? Posso assicurare a voi tutti che come risultato diretto delle loro azioni in Libia, hanno commesso un atto di genocidio e quindi dovrebbero essere tutti accusati di crimini di guerra.<br /><br />E' chiaro che attraverso i media britannici, che sono totalmente censurati, non riusciremo mai a comprendere appieno le conseguenze di questa guerra deplorevole che le Nazioni Unite aveva approvato e del conseguente utilizzo delle Armi di Distruzione di Massa sulla popolazione innocente della Libia, particolarmente sulla città di Tripoli. Questa non era una guerra per imporre una "No Fly Zone", era una guerra per forzare un "cambiamento di regime", cosa che viola la risoluzione UN1973 e che in tal modo viola anche almeno cinque articoli della Convenzione di Ginevra.<br /><br />Sparare più di 18 missili Cruise (WMD ) nel cuore di Tripoli è stato certamente un atto contro l'umanità per il quale la NATO e la sua struttura di comando devono essere portate davanti alla Corte internazionale di giustizia. E' stato anche un crimine realizzato proprio sotto il naso delle Nazioni Unite che sono restate a guardare e non hanno fatto nulla per fermare questo genocidio!<br /><br />Come sappiamo tutti, non si sono limitati solo all'uso di missili da crociera, ma hanno utilizzato anche bombe bunker buster, bombe JDAM e missili Hellfire (lanciati dagli aerei senza pilota Predator e anche da elicotteri Apache) tutti in violazione della Convenzione di Ginevra in base ai seguenti criteri.<br /><br />Le armi all'uranio impoverito sono riconosciute come armi sviluppate illegalmente nell'ambito del Progetto Manhattan, nella seconda guerra mondiale, dal Governo degli Stati Uniti. Già illegali e in violazione del Protocollo di Ginevra sui Gas Velenosi del 1925, nel 1943 le armi all'uranio impoverito sono state descritte come un "killer indiscriminato altamente mobile e contaminante permanente del terreno", consigliato per lo sviluppo in un promemoria del declassificato Progetto Manhattan datato 30 ottobre 1943.<br /><br />Era solo una questione di tempo perchè lo scienziato realizzasse la portata militare dell'uranio impoverito (UI) quando affermò: "Ha proprietà piroforiche e può incendiarsi spontaneamente a temperatura ambiente, in aria ossigeno e acqua. Queste caratteristiche uniche lo rendono interessante per l'utilizzo in molte applicazioni civili e militari. "<br /><br />La propaganda messa in circolazione da UNEP, OMS, ICRP, IAEA, Governi, DOD e molte altre autorità (senza dimenticare l'industria farmaceutica) mostra che, a loro avviso, l'UI emette Radiazioni a Basso Livello ed è quindi innocuo cosa che, in realtà, è bel lontana dalla verità che si cela dietro il suo utilizzo. Nessuno è riuscito a capire le implicazioni per la salute quando l'UI/LLR viene inalato nel corpo. Insieme hanno escogitato una scia di inganni e hanno fallito nel loro obbligo di diligenza per proteggere le popolazioni del mondo.<br /><br />A causa di questa cattiva gestione, ora stiamo osservando un aumento drammatico di molte forme di cancro, diabete e infertilità. Poichè l'UI/LLR attacca direttamente la genetica del nostro corpo attraverso il nostro DNA, siamo testimoni di terribili difetti di nascita nei bambini.<br /><br />La cosa più grave di tutte è l'inalazione di aerosol di nanoparticelle di uranio impoverito/LLR. Particelle di UI insolubile depositate nei bronchioli respiratori e negli alveoli saranno eliminate molto più lentamente, e, di conseguenza, ci si aspetta che trasmettano ai polmoni una dose superiore di radiazioni alfa. Una volta che l'UI/LLR è entrato nel sangue inizia un ciclo irreversibile. I tessuti del nostro corpo filtrano dal sangue le particelle di uranio impoverito e causano una serie di patologie chiamate "Sindrome della Guerra del Golfo."<br /><br />Era ovvio che, quando le forze della coalizione hanno colpito la Libia con le loro Armi di Distruzione di Massa, le conseguenze per il popolo della Libia sarebbero state catastrofiche. A lungo termine, ci aspettiamo qui un lento progressivo genocidio, che va oltre ogni immaginazione.<br /><br />L'uranio impoverito ha un tempo di dimezzamento di 4,5 miliardi di anni e praticamente non potrà mai essere eliminato. E' un fatto che ben più di 500 missili (contenenti ognuno circa 350 kg di UI), in qualche modo o forma, ammontano almeno a 175.000 kg. Ci vogliono circa 50 tonnellate (45.359 kg) di polvere contaminata di uranio impoverito per uccidere 500.000 persone per cui si può vedere che, quando a questo si aggiunge il fatto che l'UI è stato utilizzato anche da Stati Uniti, Gran Bretagna e Francia in altre forme di munizioni, come Bunker Busters, bombe JDAM, altri missili più piccoli e proiettili sparati da elicotteri d'attacco, ecc, un incredibile volume di uranio impoverito si sta diffondendo intorno alla Libia, in altri paesi e oltre nel mondo.<br /><br />Non si puo solo dire che le forze della coalizione hanno semplicemente violato una Convenzione di Ginevra, cioè il Protocollo di Ginevra sui Gas Velenosi del 1925 (gas tossico radioattivo) ... in realtà ne hanno violato almeno altre quattro, come ho osservato in molti dei miei articoli precedenti.<br /><br />Quello che trovo assolutamente inaccettabile è il fatto che si suppone che le Nazioni Unite offrano una garanzia contro ogni violazione della Convenzione di Ginevra e lo fanno con molti colpevoli. Tuttavia, queste palesi violazioni che sono state commesse da membri di alto profilo delle Nazioni Unite non solo vengono del tutto ignorate, ma anche respinte.<br /><br />Basti solo guardare i piani militari previsti attualmente da Stati Uniti, Israele e Regno Unito con la volontà di agire contro l'Iran (e la Siria se riescono a farla franca) che mostrano non solo l'uso continuato di uranio impoverito, ma anche di altre armi high tech che, se utilizzate, avranno conseguenze catastrofiche.<br /><br />Dovremmo anche notare che gli Stati Uniti hanno usato "armi nucleari tattiche" totalmente illegali, durante la guerra in Iraq e anche durante la guerra in Afghanistan ... E' chiaro che abbiamo molte persistenti violazioni della Convenzione di Ginevra, così come crimini di guerra, con la messa in atto di un genocidio di persone innocenti.<br />(<a href="http://ilupidieinstein.blogspot.com/2011/12/gli-stati-uniti-e-gli-stati-client.html">I lupi di Einstein</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-2197912129609008632011-11-13T23:23:00.005+01:002011-11-14T00:03:39.060+01:00MARIO SACHS<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNTS0IYXQZ382-gcz6Wc-LBO_R-K5qpZjybAzwKd-Dbz8ki-b5Nw04Zzk-cT7RLOZ1oAUhHjRHIquSBBPqCNzXnO9GTR3gWeIpKgdLNP1TwhXBonMV_j3BRXDX1y7cZ56kA5dyciQl1SlA/s1600/loveofgoldman1.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 300px; height: 280px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNTS0IYXQZ382-gcz6Wc-LBO_R-K5qpZjybAzwKd-Dbz8ki-b5Nw04Zzk-cT7RLOZ1oAUhHjRHIquSBBPqCNzXnO9GTR3gWeIpKgdLNP1TwhXBonMV_j3BRXDX1y7cZ56kA5dyciQl1SlA/s320/loveofgoldman1.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5674611586447244562" border="0" /></a>Nei giorni scorsi Le Monde ha scritto che la Goldman Sachs rappresenta il lato ombra di Mario Draghi, ex governatore della Banca d’Italia e attuale presidente della Bce. Alla lista va aggiunto anche Mario Monti. Vediamo perché.<br /><br />La Goldman Sachs è la più potente banca d’affari americana, che condiziona mercati e governi. Ha detto la veritàil trader indipendente Alessio Rastani, prendendosi gioco della BBC e rilasciando un’intervista in cui dichiarava che “i governi non governano il mondo, Goldman Sachs governa il mondo”. Nel film Inside Job, del regista Charles Ferguson, la banca d’affari risulta tra le protagoniste della crisi economica innescata nel 2008 negli Stati Uniti. In questo lungo post sul mio blog trovate la storia completa. Ma è interessante notare come gli uomini della Goldman hanno ricoperto incarichi importanti nell’amministrazione Usa, arrivando a ruoli di primo piano. Durante l’amministrazione Clinton l’ex direttore generale della Goldman Sachs, Robert Rubin, divenne sottosegretario al Tesoro. Nel 2004, Henry Paulson, amminstratore delegato dalla Goldman fece approvare alla Commissione dei Titoli e Scambi un aumento dei limiti sul rapporto di indebitamento, permettendo alle banche d’investimento di avere ulteriori prestiti da utilizzare per manovre di speculazione. Nel 2005 Raghuram Rajan, capo economista del Fondo Monetario Internazionale (2003-2007) pubblicò un rapporto in cui annunciava il rischio che le società finanziarie, assumendo grandi rischi per realizzare enormi profitti a breve termine, avrebbero potuto far collassare il sistema economico. Nella prima metà del 2006 la Goldman Sachs vendette 3,1 miliardi di dollari di Cdo e in quel periodo l’amministratore delegato era proprio Henry Paulson. Il 30 maggio 2006 George Bush lo nomina segretario del Tesoro e fu costretto a vendere le sue azioni della Goldman, intascando 485 milioni di dollari (e grazie a una legge di Bush padre non pagò nessuna tassa).<br /><br />Nell’aprile del 2010 i dirigenti della Goldman Sachs furono costretti a testimoniare al Congresso americano: Daniel Sparks, ex capo reparto mutui della Goldman (2006-2008) dovette riferire su alcune email in cui definiva certe transazioni “affari di merda”. Fabrice Tourre, direttore esecutivo prodotti strutturati della Goldman Sachs vendeva azioni che definiva “cacca”. Llyod Blankfein, presidente di Goldman, e David Viniar, vicepresidente esecutivo, sotto le pressanti domande del senatore Carl Levin furono costretti ad ammettere che sapevano di vendere spazzatura.<br /><br />Purtroppo anche Barack Obama ha confermato il potere della banca d’affari. Il nuovo presidente della Federal Reserve Bank di New York (principale azionista della Fed) è William Dudley, ex capo economista della Goldman (che nel 2004 lodava i derivati). Capo del personale del dipartimento del Tesoro è Mark Patterson, ex lobbista della Goldman Sachs. A capo della CFCT si è insediato Gary Gensler, ex dirigente della Goldman Sachs che aiutò ad abolire la regolarizazione dei derivati.<br /><br />Anche in Europa la Goldman manovra da tempo. Nel 1999 la Grecia non aveva i numeri per entrare nell’euro. Quindi truccò i bilanci. Su Presseurope Gabriele Crescente scrive: “Nel 2000 Goldman Sachs International, la filiale britannica della banca d’affari americana, vende al governo socialista di Costas Simitis uno “swap” in valuta che permette alla Grecia di proteggersi dagli effetti di cambio, trasformando in euro il debito inizialmente emesso in dollari. Lo stratagemma consente ad Atene di iscrivere il ‘nuovo’ debito in euro ed escluderlo dal bilancio facendolo momentaneamente sparire. E così Goldman Sachs intasca la sua sostanziosa commissione e alimenta una volta di più la sua reputazione di ottimo amministratore del debito sovrano.”<br /><br />Ora torniamo a Mario Draghi. Dal 2002 al 2005 è stato vicepresidente e membro del management Committee Worldwide della Goldman Sachs. Insomma: proprio nel periodo in cui in America le banche d’affari erano scatenate in manovre speculative e scavavano il baratro finanziario che si è materializzato nel 2008, trascinando il resto del mondo. Non sapeva nulla di queste tendenze l’economista italiano?<br /><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Anche Mario Monti lavora per la banca d’affari: dal 2005 è International Advisor per Goldman Sachs e precisamente membro del Research Advisory Council del “Goldman Sachs Global Market Institute”, cioè dall’anno in cui si stava progettando la crisi economica mondiale.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />Queste informazioni, purtroppo, la stampa italiana le ha ignorate. Ma la Rete no. Durante la seconda puntata di Servizio Pubblico il blogger Claudio Messora ha spiegato il rapporto tra Mario Monti e la Goldman. E ha citato un articolo di Milano Finanza che – unica eccezione – ha rivelato il ruolo della Goldman Sachs nel rialzo dello spread dei titoli italiani in questi giorni. In pochi minuti su Facebook è cambiata l’opinione degli utenti all’interno di un sondaggio: prima volevano Monti presidente del Consiglio, dopo le rivelazioni hanno cambiato idea. E’ la prova che se l’informazione facesse il suo dovere avremmo meno lobby al potere e più democrazia.<br /></div>(<a href="http://www.enzodifrennablog.it/index.php/informazione/goldman-sachs-il-lato-ombra-di-draghi-e-monti.html">EnzoDiFrennaBlog</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-14872324665781439232011-10-20T17:08:00.003+02:002011-10-20T17:25:59.243+02:00ISLANDA: BASTA FMI, GRAZIE. (Iceland: no more Fmi, thanks)<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisNjLP9srX80YS0NZrFADtZ7OqyoWtnDL28T_yxy2H43i0NWeZ_0GvNxBKrll5hV5wJtjsKFPz7Bl93Pe6FeKEueMrdtwKb-EF5zujPUn48t8gUnyA6DmQx8L-zezlGpLlU2QQfOGM4ts9/s1600/icelandIMF.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisNjLP9srX80YS0NZrFADtZ7OqyoWtnDL28T_yxy2H43i0NWeZ_0GvNxBKrll5hV5wJtjsKFPz7Bl93Pe6FeKEueMrdtwKb-EF5zujPUn48t8gUnyA6DmQx8L-zezlGpLlU2QQfOGM4ts9/s320/icelandIMF.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5665595929126354050" border="0" /></a>La Nazione-isola del Nord Europa si sta riprendendo dalla crisi economica indotta dal monetarismo usuraio internazionale e lo sta facendo in modo del tutto opposto a quello che viene generalmente propagandato come inevitabile. Niente salvataggi da parte di Bce, Fmi o Banca Mondiale, niente cessione della propria sovranità a nazioni straniere, ma piuttosto un percorso di riappropriazione dei diritti e della partecipazione, e un coinvolgimento dell’opinione pubblica nazionale tra le più alte d’Occidente.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />Anzi, dopo circa tre anni di aut aut rigettati dal popolo islandese attraverso un referendum e una Assemblea Costituente, il Fondo Monetario Internazionale e l’Islanda hanno preso strade diverse.<br />In tempi di presunti salvataggi nazionali portati avanti con ricette neoliberiste, di annullamenti di sovranità monetarie nazionali e di politiche di tagli violenti alle strutture amministrative, sociali ed economiche dei singoli Stati, lo stato islandese ha deciso di proseguire fermamente nella strada intrapresa oltre un anno fa, attraverso un imponente consenso dell’opinione pubblica nazionale, generalmente formata ed informata su temi così delicati e importanti.<br /><br />Come riportato da diversi servizi della tv pubblica islandese Ruv, l’Fmi, portato a termine la sua sesta revisione dell’economia nazionale islandese a Washington, non proseguirà con altri “rapporti” o “consigli” pertinenti l’isola dell’Atlantico. L’Fmi conclude quindi le operazioni in Islanda, e la lascia.<br />Il Primo Ministro islandese Johanna Siguroardottir ha annunciato la partenza dei funzionari in una conferenza stampa nella cittadina di Iono nei giorni scorsi, aggiungendo che la ricostruzione economica islandese è sulla retta via, con miglioramenti in corso e risultati ottenuti prima del previsto. Ha inoltre detto che la ricostruzione islandese dopo il collasso bancario del 2008 “è andata oltre ogni aspettativa” ...<br /><br />Il ministro delle Finanze Steingrimur J. Sigfusson ha preso parte alla conferenza sostenendo che la stabilità finanziaria islandese sarebbe nuovamente solida.<br />Il ministro dell’Economia e del Commercio Arni Pall Arnason ha ricordato come molte persone fossero preoccupate e avverse alla cosiddetta cooperazione tra Fmi e Islanda, proprio per il timore che il loro “benessere” – altro elemento di vanto e di efficienza - sarebbe stato tagliato duramente e che sarebbero state prese misure drastiche, basate sui diktat classici utilizzati dal Fondo Monetario nei suoi interventi in Europa, Estremo Oriente e in Sudamerica.<br /><br />L’arrivo del FMI in Islanda fu accolto in maniera estremamente fredda da gran parte della popolazione, convinta che il Fmi avrebbe affogato la nazione in uno stato di permanente debito, come ormai troppi paesi hanno già sperimentato in passato. La partenza dei funzionari del Fmi è stata quindi vista con soddisfazione da gran parte dei cittadini.<br /><br />L’Islanda ha seguito un particolare percorso per questo sganciamento dal sistema monetario occidentale. Anche chiedendo un aiuto alla Russia (4 miliardi di euro) nel 2008. E di fatto duplicando quanto a suo tempo operato sia dalla stessa Russia (caduta nel baratro monetarista ai tempi di Eltsin) che dall’Argentina, la cui economia - fermato il debito pubblico sotto la presidenza Kirchner - è tornata a volare a tassi del’’8% annuo.<br />(<a href="http://www.vocidallastrada.com/2011/10/lislanda-si-libera-dal-fondo-monetario.html">Voci dalla Strada</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-83539376954949117832011-08-16T10:57:00.002+02:002011-08-16T11:15:44.082+02:00A SAD EVENING WITH AMY WINEHOUSE. (Una triste serata con Amy Winehouse)<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0h3RYwYVZK81EXRpv2n1lgamHc8JpfLgAav5lAfzNnappPG0TcpgIUd6V_-awXVt71xnsUmkA7Ajh68ZVNIhdUmxz_BobCVa91iGHSqZriFiKQQn26hbqsoOgQiJS5SxBjq-RoR1F2PD-/s1600/amy-winehouse.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0h3RYwYVZK81EXRpv2n1lgamHc8JpfLgAav5lAfzNnappPG0TcpgIUd6V_-awXVt71xnsUmkA7Ajh68ZVNIhdUmxz_BobCVa91iGHSqZriFiKQQn26hbqsoOgQiJS5SxBjq-RoR1F2PD-/s320/amy-winehouse.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5641379820205161186" border="0" /></a>Fans in Poland, Turkey, Greece, Spain, Switzerland, Italy, Austria, Hungary and Romania won’t be seeing this lady perform the rest of her 2011 comeback tour after three years away. It was really painful to watch how Amy Winehouse was out there in Kalemegdan Park during Belgrade’s Tuborg Festival, humiliating herself. I don’t regret the money I paid because I wouldn’t have believed without my own eyes how wasted she was. I thought it was all just an act and kept waiting for the 27-year-old to grab the mike and say Gotcha.
<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />For the two songs she actually did know the lyrics to (Back to Black, You Know I’m No Good), she mostly mumbled them totally out of rhythm. Half of the time that she actually stood in front of a microphone, she had her face covered by her hand, as though she felt ashamed. At some points she looked as she was going to cry and kept holding her stomach like she was in pain.
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<br />‘I don’t regret the money I paid because I wouldn’t have believed without my own eyes how wasted she was’
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<br />Winehouse went offstage on two occasions for couple of minutes. The first time she came back on stage, the 20, 000-strong crowd applauded her because it seemed that she had got a grip on it. But, when she started mumbling again, they booed her and started to call for Moby (who was scheduled to perform after her). Some started to throw things at her, paper and plastic cups. One guy threw his Amy cowboy hat (sold before the show outside of the venue), but hit a security guard instead. She didn’t seem aware of any of that. It seemed that most of the booing was coming from behind, from the people with cheaper tickets, while the people in front rows were just shocked. The band remained professional, especially the two backing singers Zalon Thompson and Ade Omotayo, both singing two cover songs. Days later it’s still being discussed. Some call it the worst concert in the history of Belgrade, wanting their £35 or 40 euros back. Less just feel sorry for her whilst the third line - people who didn’t go to the concert - feel self-content by posting ‘could you really not see this coming’ comments.
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<br />Seeing the condition Winehouse is in, her management has to take the blame. They did a really good PR before the concert, launching stories on alcohol ban in hotels where Amy is staying and surprise concerts at London’s 100 Club on 12 June (how come there are no videos of that?). My guess is that Ray Cosbert and co. are not really keeping that good an eye on her (or maybe she doesn’t allow them to), but are well in exploiting her while she’s still able to walk. Her contract stated that she has to arrive to Belgrade on time and spend seventy minutes on stage. Although she was ready to leave the stage twice, they got her back, in spite of her condition, so she could fulfill those terms. Of course, the performance fees go to her, but they also get their piece of the deal.
<br />(<a href="http://www.cafebabel.co.uk/article/37992/europe-concerts-winehouse-sonar-die-antwoord.html">CaféBabel</a>)
<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-88203228064320220242011-06-03T14:11:00.004+02:002011-06-03T14:57:00.432+02:00RIGHT DOWN (La destra scende)<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-TmWSozs4UecR2HSIW_XsTTz3j9AKLOASd1IMc3GZip0CjZE6GnQs_dC3vYUHC83sNayLjcvnTcx2j8fsjOKG4sDQLX2k3rKvk-ZmrHDn3TP9PSkf7QOQmYLwb5aqOIkEvTA8dG1sp65G/s1600/pisapia-moratti.png"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 296px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-TmWSozs4UecR2HSIW_XsTTz3j9AKLOASd1IMc3GZip0CjZE6GnQs_dC3vYUHC83sNayLjcvnTcx2j8fsjOKG4sDQLX2k3rKvk-ZmrHDn3TP9PSkf7QOQmYLwb5aqOIkEvTA8dG1sp65G/s320/pisapia-moratti.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5613966345336120850" border="0" /></a>Municipal and provincial elections were held in Italy on May 15-16 and 29-30. Roughly 135 major municipalities and eleven provinces were up, most notably the second and third largest cities in Italy – Milan and Naples. Given how personalized Italian politics is (around Silvio Berlusconi, of course) since 1994, these elections were yet another referendum on Berlusconi. Berlusconi, of course, has been taking hates with ‘Rubygate’, ‘bunga-bunga’, his judicial ‘reforms’ and various other things.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />Milan and Naples were the most symbolic contests. Milan has been the symbol of Berlusconi’s Italy, having been ruled by centre-right mayors since 1993, and is widely considered to be the centre of Berlusconi’s electoral machinery and his home base. Naples was counted on by the right as the certain pickup, to complete the right’s recent clean sweep of Naples province and the region of Campania. Naples has been ruled by the centre-left’s Rosa Russo Iervolino since 2001. Other major cities up for re-election in the runoffs included Trieste (PdL incumbent) and Cagliari (PdL incumbent). The left held Turin and Bologna easily in the first round two weeks ago.<br /><br />The contest in Milan pitted the left’s Giuliano Pisapia against incumbent mayor PdL Letizia Moratti, in office since 2006. Giuliano Pisapia is a lawyer and former parliamentarian for Proletarian Democracy and the Communist Refoundation, and surprisingly won the PD primary despite not being a PD member thanks to strong support from Nichi Vendola’s Left-Ecology and Freedom (SEL) party. Berlusconi, himself the top candidate on the PdL list in Milan, rambled on about how Milan would be overrun by Muslims, Roms and gays if Pisapia won and derided Pisapia as a communist. Moratti, in a debate, falsely accussed Pisapia of having a conviction for a car theft. That accusation, later proven to be false, may have served to turn the table against her. In the first round, Pisapia won 48% against 41.6% for Moratti, with the UDC’s Manfredi Palmeri taking 5.5% and Mattia Calise from Beppe Grillo’s grouping taking 3.2%. Turnout was 67.6%, a number which declined only slightly to 67.4% during the runoff.<br /><br />In Naples, the centre-right’s Giovanni Lettieri came out ahead two weeks ago, but with a disappointing 38.5% against a divided left. The PD’s Mario Morcone placed third with 19.15% against 27.5% for Luigi de Magistris, a former prosecutor and candidate of the Italy of Values (IdV) party. Raimondo Pasquino, the UDC/FLI candidate won 9.7% and Clemente Mastella of UDEUR won 2.2%. The results of the first round, in which turnout was 60.3%, placed Lettieri in a surprisingly feeble position if the left could unite its forces.<br /></div><br />Here are the main runoff results:<br /><br />Milan<br />Giuliano Pisapia (SEL-PD) 55.1%<br />Letizia Moratti (PdL) 44.89%<br />turnout 67.38%<br /><br />Naples<br />Luigi De Magistris (IdV) 65.37%<br />Giovanni Lettieri (PdL) 34.62%<br />turnout 50.57%<br /><br />Trieste<br />Roberto Cosolini (PD) 57.51%<br />Roberto Antonione (PdL) 42.49%<br />turnout 51.55%<br /><br />Cagliari<br />Massimo Zedda (PD) 59.42%<br />Massimo Fantola (PdL) 40.57%<br />turnout 62.23%<br /><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">The first round saw major left-wing gains, but the runoffs saw a left-wing landslide in most of the towns and provinces up for election. In Milan, Pisapia was able to win the bulk of the UDC and Beppe Grillo’s voters, while Moratti increased her showing by only 3% from the first round. The fearmongering campaign of the PdL, accusing Pisapia of all sorts of things and talking about the gays and Muslims taking over the place backfired badly. The first round results made a left-wing victory likely in Milan, but the crushing margin was not expected and, at any rate, it remains a major symbolic blow to Berlusconi in the city which has been the symbol of right-wing Berlusconian Italy since 1993. In Naples, turnout dropped roughly 10% (turnout also dropped a lot in Trieste and Cagliari), and judging from the results there was a major enthusiasm GOTV gap between left and right. The narrative of the media between the two rounds talked extensively about how the first round had been a blow to the right, a narrative which probably motivated left-wingers to deal a blow-out blow in the runoff but demotivated right-wing voters. Lettieri won less in the runoff than in the first round, which means that not only did he fail to pickup any new voters from the centre-right UDC/FLI or UDEUR, but he also failed to hold on to a few of his first round voters. De Magistris won a landslide, all the more impressive and disastrous for the right considering how Naples was the right-wing target. The left also picked up Trieste and Cagliari, two right-wing cities, the latter of which has apparently been held by the right since World War II. La Repubblica‘s graphic tells me that the left-right balance, 73-54 in the left’s favour before these elections, turned 83-36 in the left’s favour this year.<br />(<a href="http://welections.wordpress.com/2011/06/01/italy-municipal-2011/">World Elections</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-29628507395408003902011-04-20T15:15:00.003+02:002011-04-20T15:23:59.480+02:00THE S&P FILES<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgZjk0Gu94z_f4x_YiSF-GxTbqMwfeC4kepu_wy5jxtg-0VpJ4ATpZNxRxA-yQW-KG82XcKGFtVmzWlC2wVOARicUj7XoWzMKbO3ncmNg70UIWGDdYdWOAY8JiZai6kK2t_6g77l0P6Ytc/s1600/sp-1303135932244-4.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 214px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgZjk0Gu94z_f4x_YiSF-GxTbqMwfeC4kepu_wy5jxtg-0VpJ4ATpZNxRxA-yQW-KG82XcKGFtVmzWlC2wVOARicUj7XoWzMKbO3ncmNg70UIWGDdYdWOAY8JiZai6kK2t_6g77l0P6Ytc/s320/sp-1303135932244-4.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5597655699991221218" border="0" /></a>Ammettiamolo: il taglio di Outlook sul debito degli USA da parte di S&P ha sorpreso un po' tutti, anche gli "informati" che già sapevano ma non avevavo capito del tutto....<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />Sia ben chiaro: non è la fine del mondo ma è un segnale da interpretare e di cui tenere conto.<br />Infatti è pur vero che le sorelle zoccole del rating sono le sorelle zoccole del rating ;)<br />o che i CDS sono in buona parte solo dei missili teleguidati dalla speculazione....<br />Ma se anche non condividiamo ontologicamente queste "realtà", dobbiamo comunque tenerne conto se vogliamo analizzare l'economia e la finanza.<br />Infatti Società di Rating, CDS etc continuano ad avere un forte impatto, che ci piaccia o no.<br /><br />Tutti hanno iniziato a dare un sacco d'interpretazioni all'Evento Misterioso del Taglio X-Files: in effetti è un po' come se lo IOR tagliasse il rating al Vaticano...;)<br /><br />Io invece mi permetto di suggerirvi QUESTA Interpretazione che in fondo è la più semplice e la più sana...<br />anche se a molti potrebbe apparire come una spiegazione da utopisti rivoluzionari...<br />E ci voleva un moderno George Washington Blogger per darcela....;)<br />Inoltre, se anche questa Interpretazione non spiegasse le intenzioni remote e meno remote di S&P,<br />funzionerebbe lo stesso come Interpretazione Generale degli USA post-Grande-Crisi (post??...mah?...)<br />E volendo potrebbe funzionare benissimo anche come EPITAFFIO.....<br /><br />Standard & Poors ha tagliato l'Outlook degli USA a Negativo perchè entrambe le parti politiche (Democratici&Repubblicani) continuano a buttare un'enorme quantità di denaro in Guerre senza fine, in Bailout senza fine ed in un Sistema Finanziario a schema Ponzi...<br />Standard & Poors Cuts U.S. Outlook to Negative Because Both Parties Keep Throwing Money at Endless Wars, Endless Bailouts and a Ponzi Financial System<br /><br /> ...The war between liberals and conservatives is a false divide-and-conquer dog-and-pony show created by the powers that be to keep the American people divided and distracted....<br /> The real problem is that both Democrats and Republicans want to fund endless wars, give endless bailouts to the too big to fail banks and corporations, and perpetuate the expensive Ponzi scheme of printing money out of thin air.<br /> Imperial wars reduce our national security. Indeed, our top military and intelligence officials say that debt is the main threat to our national security, and have said that the Pentagon must cut spending<br /> ...Moreover, endless bailouts harm the economy.<br /> Ponzi finance costs trillions of dollars (and leads to a decrease in loans to Main Street)....<br /> To the extent that both the Republican and Democratic parties slavishly follow these meta-policies - which supersede the stated "conservative" and "liberal" goals - they will ensure that we lose our AAA credit, and they will destroy our economy....<br /><br />Insomma la colpa è tutta della Politica USA nel suo insieme, che ormai sarebbe totalmente equivalente alla Finanza ed all'Economia,<br />senza alcuna progettualità<br />che vada OLTRE, basandosi su "santi princìpi" ormai caduti in disuso...<br />o semplicemente che stia ENTRO i dettami della Costituzione Americana.<br />Naturalmente tale Interpretazione è applicabile anche ALTROVE, con piccoli adattamenti...<br />(<a href="http://www.ilgrandebluff.info/2011/04/levento-misterioso.html">Il grande bluff</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-41216283794191928622011-03-17T15:18:00.002+01:002011-03-17T15:22:01.228+01:00WIKILEAKS vs TEPCO<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnAXCiqL4vrhT2tBmFcS9FODytEBXmS3s8oPZNJ1JcOEIfEyHk2sJIe7d7qMukXXG2U6Yft2TrREwMdpSVuqlKW17RCudo-42bc0XIOuA-Ch60G2VOrhEv1wWrCUudoNWCUV1HQtTI7MvY/s1600/284_0.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnAXCiqL4vrhT2tBmFcS9FODytEBXmS3s8oPZNJ1JcOEIfEyHk2sJIe7d7qMukXXG2U6Yft2TrREwMdpSVuqlKW17RCudo-42bc0XIOuA-Ch60G2VOrhEv1wWrCUudoNWCUV1HQtTI7MvY/s320/284_0.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5585053959862281522" border="0" /></a>Eighteen months before Japan’s radiation crisis, U.S. diplomats had lambasted the safety chief of the world’s atomic watchdog for incompetence, especially when it came to the nuclear power industry in his homeland, Japan.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />Cables sent from the U.S. embassy in Vienna to Washington, which were obtained by WikiLeaks and reviewed by Reuters, singled out Tomihiro Taniuchi, until last year head of safety and security at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).<br /><br />“For the past 10 years, the department has suffered tremendously because of (deputy director general) Taniguchi’s weak management and leadership skills,” said one dispatch on Dec. 1, 2009.<br /><br />“Taniguchi has been a weak manager and advocate, particularly with respect to confronting Japan’s own safety practices, and he is a particular disappointment to the United States for his unloved-step-child treatment of the Office of Nuclear Security,” said another, which was sent on July 7, 2009.<br /><br />The IAEA does not comment on the contents of leaked cables.<br /><br />The evidence of concern about the Japanese national surfaced as his country scrambled to avert a lethal spread of radiation from earthquake-damaged nuclear reactors north of Tokyo.<br /><br />Japan’s crisis has brought scrutiny of its nuclear authorities and, in particular, the operator of the stricken reactors, which has a history of falsifying data at its plants.<br /><br />Separate cables quoted a Japanese lawmaker as telling visiting U.S. officials in October 2008 that power companies in Japan were hiding nuclear safety problems and being given an easy ride on commitments to renewable energy by the government.<br /><br />Taro Kono, a supporter of renewable energy who in 2009 bid unsuccessfully for leadership of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), also said Japan had no solution for nuclear waste storage. He asked if there was anywhere appropriate to store waste given that Japan was the “land of volcanoes.”<br /><br />Kono was not immediately available for comment.<br /><br />The operator of the Fukushima Daiichi plant now at the centre of the crisis – the Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) – has had a rocky past in an industry plagued by scandal.<br /><br />Five TEPCO executives resigned in 2002 over suspected falsification of nuclear plant safety records and five reactors were forced to stop operations.<br /><br />In 2006, the government ordered TEPCO to check past data after it reported finding falsification of coolant water temperatures at its Fukushima Daiichi plant in 1985 and 1988, and that the tweaked data was used in mandatory inspections at the plant, which were completed in October 2005.<br /><br />The risk of earthquakes and tsunamis was already well known before last Friday’s massive earthquake, but many of Japan’s nuclear power plants, including the now-crippled Fukushima complex, were built before the most modern safety standards.<br /><br />An unnamed IAEA official told the G8 Nuclear Safety and Security Group in December 2008 that guidelines for seismic safety had only been revised three times in the past 35 years and that the IAEA was re-examining them, another WikiLeaks cable showed.<br /><br />“Also, the presenter noted recent earthquakes in some cases have exceeded the design basis for some nuclear plants, and that this is a serious problem that is now driving seismic safety work,” the cable said.<br /><br />Leaks of radioactive steam and workers contaminated with radiation are just part of the disturbing catalogue of accidents that have occurred over the years and been belatedly reported to the public, if at all, the Associated Press reports.<br /><br />In one case, workers hand-mixed uranium in stainless steel buckets, instead of processing by machine, so the fuel could be reused, exposing hundreds of workers to radiation. Two later died.<br /><br />“Everything is a secret,” said Kei Sugaoka, a former nuclear power plant engineer in Japan who now lives in California. “There's not enough transparency in the industry.”<br /><br />Sugaoka worked at the same utility that runs the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant where workers are racing to prevent a full meltdown following Friday's 9.0 magnitude quake and tsunami.<br /><br />In 1989 Sugaoka received an order that horrified him: edit out footage showing cracks in plant steam pipes in video being submitted to regulators. Sugaoka alerted his superiors in the Tokyo Electric Power Co., but nothing happened. He decided to go public in 2000. Three Tepco executives lost their jobs.<br /><br />Competence and transparency issues aside, some say it's just too dangerous to build nuclear plants in an earthquake-prone nation like Japan, where land can liquefy during a major temblor.<br /><br />“You're building on a heap of tofu,” said Philip White of Tokyo-based Citizens' Nuclear Information Center, a group of scientists and activists who have opposed nuclear power since 1975.<br /><br />“There is absolutely no reason to trust them,” he said of those that run Japan's nuclear power plants.<br /><br />IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano said on Wednesday before leaving for Japan that the agency had been trying continuously to help improve the safety of nuclear plants against earthquakes.<br /><br />A draft IAEA report on safety standards, published in October 2009, recommended that nuclear power plants be located more than 10 kilometres from the sea or ocean shoreline, or more than one km from a lake or fjord shoreline; or at an elevation of more than 50 metres from the mean water level.<br /><br />“To my knowledge, all of the nuclear power plants in Japan are located quite close to the ocean,” said Daniel Aldrich, author of Site fights, a book about how decisions were taken on where to build nuclear power plants in Japan and elsewhere.<br /><br />“This is for two reasons: 1) normally, cooling pipes carry in seawater through the reactor unit and cool it off, and then dump the warmer water back in the ocean (these pipes are not functioning normally at this point), and 2) these areas are remote, far from high population density areas, and they have the least resistance from civil society,” he said in emailed comments.<br /><br />The latest IAEA recommendations are far more stringent than the original standards set for Japanese plants. The six reactors at the Daiichi facility were commissioned between 1971 and 1979, while two other Japanese nuclear reactors date back to 1970.<br /><br />“An anomalous magnitude 9.0 scale is far beyond the assumed safety standard when Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station started up forty years ago,” Yu Shibutani, director of Energy Geopolitics Ltd of Japan, said in an email to Reuters.<br /><br />“The tsunami walls either should have been built higher, or the generators should have been placed on higher ground to withstand potential flooding, but it has failed.<br /><br />“The accident exposes shortcomings in risk analysis as well as in engineering, and also the plant didn’t meet safety standards in both quake and tsunami wall.”<br />(<a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/955468--japanese-power-companies-hid-nuclear-safety-problems-wikileaks">TheStar.com</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-24438169154298501002011-02-09T14:48:00.003+01:002011-02-09T15:37:46.087+01:00A TRAVEL TO ASCONA. (Viaggio ad Ascona)<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhD-JZi5a4_nqr1fXDoLd4ktt64VHS0BkkqPiJJDD_MPHkDHCGV11UeMU4U-RjMc2tp_hy36C6jC9W7mU23GBGc1-VqAyJHb-Owiqg5jWqDsxnC2FfBqiEd7IiwkdEyQh98Z4ibX_BhBpTa/s1600/ascona_1.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 215px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhD-JZi5a4_nqr1fXDoLd4ktt64VHS0BkkqPiJJDD_MPHkDHCGV11UeMU4U-RjMc2tp_hy36C6jC9W7mU23GBGc1-VqAyJHb-Owiqg5jWqDsxnC2FfBqiEd7IiwkdEyQh98Z4ibX_BhBpTa/s320/ascona_1.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5571693201748957362" border="0" /></a>Ieri la vetrina di una conosciutissima agenzia di viaggi a Madrid annunciava un fine settimana natalizio in un magico paesino svizzero, Ascona, sulle rive nord del Lago Maggiore. Ascona, diceva l’annuncio. Un comune ed una città storica che ha sperimentato un periodo straordinario all’inizio del XX secolo, quando una colonia di filosofi, scrittori, vegetariani, poeti, ballerini e pittori di tutto il mondo si riunivano sul Monte Verità, predicando i benefici della natura- “Questo insediamento- diceva l’annuncio- è diventato in un campo di prova per stili di vita alternativa”.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />Ma, Ascona è molto più di un’ex colonia di artisti “geek” dell’inizio del secolo scorso.<br />Una quantità incredibile della filosofia e degli artefatti della contro cultura americana degli anni 60, oltre alle idiozie della New Age di oggi, derivano da un’esperimento sociale su larga scala messo attuato ad Ascona e che comprende gli anni dal 1910 fino all'anno 1935.<br /><br />Ad esempio, Ascona è stato il rifugio per ogni sorta di occultisti e sette del movimento originale della New Age dell’inizio secolo sotto l'egida della Società Teosofica di Helena Blavatsky. La Blavatsky, è stata un’occultista russa con un’influenza enorme nella maggior parte delle sette sataniche del XX secolo. L’Ordo Templis Orientis, la fraternità occulta creata dal satanista Aleister Crowley ha avuto la sua unica loggia femminile ad Ascona.<br /><br />Crowley, uno degli uomini più malvagi che mai sia esistito, era un prodotto del cerchio satanico che si è sviluppato in Gran Bretagna dal 1860 sotto la guida di Edward Bulwer-Lytton, il ministro coloniale durante la seconda guerra dell'oppio. Nel 1886, Crowley, William Butler Yeats- poeta e drammaturgo irlandese- e Premio Nobel per la Letteratura, tra gli altri vari individui di idee affini, formarono il Tempio Iside - Urania dell’Ordine Ermetica dell’Alba Dorata.<br />Il sovversivo Iside Urania Ordine dell’Alba Dorata è oggi una rete di narcotraffico internazionale controllata dal multimilionario canadese Maurice Strong, ex sottosegretario generale dell’ONU e un doppio agente dell’intelligence britannica.<br /><br />L’influenza dominante ad Ascona arrivò dalla mano del Dottor Otto Gross, discepolo di Freud e amico di Carl Jung. I suoi seguaci più famosi furono Frieda e D.H Lawrence e Franz Kafka.<br /><br />Furono i progetti originali per quello che più tardi sarebbe diventato un progetto super segreto del Programma Monarch della CIA. Cioè, la “guerra psicologica subcoscia” che trasformò milioni di cittadini innocenti in zombi programmati dalla CIA, creato in parte dalla mente di Gross.<br /><br />Inoltre, è agghiacciante vedere il numero di intellettuali oggi venerati come eroi culturali che furono influenzati dalla follia della New Age di Ascona- inclusi tra essi quasi tutti gli autori che hanno goduto di riconoscimento negli USA durante gli anni 60 e 70. Ad esempio, Ascona e la sua filosofia appaiono nelle opere non solo di Lawrence e di Kafka, ma anche dei Premi Nobel Gerhardt Hauptmann e Hermann Hesse, H.G. Wells, Max Brod, Stefan George, e dei poeti Rainer Maria Rilke e Gustav Landauer. Nel 1935, Ascona divenne la sede delle conferenze annuali di Carl Jung con l’obiettivo di divulgare lo gnosticismo.<br /><br />Ascona è stato anche il luogo della creazione della maggior parte di quella che oggi chiamiamo danza moderna. Fu Rudolf von Laban, creatore della Labanotazione, il suo metodo di annotazione matematica, che ha documentato tutte le pose del movimento umano e coreografie che hanno permesso di registrare i passi dei ballerini. Làban cercò di sostituire le geometrie formali della danza classica con ricostruzioni di danze di culto che sono state in grado di ripetere le memorie razziali primordiali del pubblico. Quando i nazisti arrivarono al potere, Laban diventò l’ufficiale del più alto rango della danza nel Reich.<br /><br />Inoltre, anche il movimento dadaista nonostante abbia avuto la sue origini nelle vicinanze di Zurigo tutte le sue prime figure furono di Ascona fisicamente o filosoficamente.<br />E per concludere. Conosci la famosa canzone dei Beatles? It was twenty years ago today/ Sergeant Pepper taught the band to play, dall’album “Sgt Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band”.<br />Sapete a chi si riferivano i Beatles con quella frase?<br />Al loro satanista preferito, Aleister Crowley. L’album fu pubblicato esattamente 20 anni dopo la morte della persona più malvagia della storia umana: Crowley.<br /><br />Quindi, quando parliamo di Ascona- la pubblicità dovrebbe dire- Benvenuti all’inferno o forse: Al Mondo di Fumo e di Specchi.<br />(<a href="http://www.vocidallastrada.com/2011/01/ascona-e-il-nuovo-ordine-mondiale.html#more">Voci dalla strada</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-7735833203894398982010-12-16T00:37:00.005+01:002010-12-16T00:48:30.075+01:00THE FUTURE OF CHILE IS MADE OF LITHIUM. (Il futuro del CIle è fatto di litio)<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH1nc1vQEJzqfo50xW53DNkXS0EHENlY7YQhVYHKP9YO28sbU4DE2q9buQ9FiUFqlQ7S-QYmllOArn-yZVS-sYliPn_Y8d0XoCJlZxEkbk7_euG7pKkCA4LB16TpMIAZEoqcJUreLJTDGj/s1600/Lithium_paraffin.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 178px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH1nc1vQEJzqfo50xW53DNkXS0EHENlY7YQhVYHKP9YO28sbU4DE2q9buQ9FiUFqlQ7S-QYmllOArn-yZVS-sYliPn_Y8d0XoCJlZxEkbk7_euG7pKkCA4LB16TpMIAZEoqcJUreLJTDGj/s320/Lithium_paraffin.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5551058333658797650" border="0" /></a>La demanda de litio está creciendo a nivel global porque es el material más eficiente para el desarrollo de las baterías y, en especial, es la mejor alternativa de almacenamiento de energía para la expansión de los autos híbridos y eléctricos. La reducción de las reservas de petróleo, el aumento de su precio y los efectos que generan los hidrocarburos en el calentamiento global van a desplazar la prioridad a estas nuevas tecnologías. Y, por otro lado, además de sus múltiples usos industriales y aplicaciones metálicas, el litio también es muy eficiente en la producción de tritio para la fusión nuclear, que se espera pueda reemplazar a las actuales centrales de fisión nuclear. La gran diferencia medioambiental entre ellas es que la fusión no genera desechos radiactivos. La primera central experimental de fusión nuclear, del proyecto multinacional ITER emplazado en Francia, podría entrar en funciones el año 2017 y se prevé que a fines de siglo podría transformarse en una de las fuentes de energía dominantes a nivel mundial.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />Actualmente, Chile tiene el 40% de las reservas probadas de litio y tiene ventajas competitivas para su explotación respecto de otros países. Pero eso está cambiando. Viene una ola de inversiones que va a reestructurar este mercado y el mapa de sus actores. Se han descubierto nuevos yacimientos, se están probando las reservas probables y está comenzando su explotación más intensiva.<br /><br />Este cambio tiene efectos geopolíticos, en tres planos distintos.<br /><br />El primero es si se trata de un producto estratégico y qué entendemos por eso.<br /><br />El uso del litio en las armas nucleares llevó a que Chile lo considerara un mineral no objeto de concesión, porque era una reserva militar “estratégica”. De hecho, esta medida proviene de un Decreto Ley dictado con anterioridad al Código de Minería y a la Ley de Concesiones Mineras. Junto con la retención de Codelco en manos del Estado, éste fue de los pocos triunfos del sector nacionalista del gobierno militar versus las posiciones liberales de entonces. En los años ’70 la carrera nuclear estaba en su apogeo y la bomba de hidrógeno era el estándar del futuro. Sólo los tratados que limitaron su proliferación y los sucesivos acuerdos para desmantelar arsenales atómicos redujo la importancia del litio. No es que una nueva tecnología lo haya dejado en desuso, sino que una decisión política limitó su expansión.<br /><br />Ahora bien, esa concepción de que lo “estratégico” de un producto está ligado a su potencial militar también está obsoleta. La mirada hoy es distinta.<br /><br />Esto es, el tratamiento del litio como un mineral estratégico estuvo asociado directa y esencialmente a ese potencial militar. La apreciación de ese potencial nuclear hoy es distinta, pero sobre todo esa concepción sobre lo “estratégico” de un producto también está obsoleta.<br /><br />La regla general de los productos es que son un commoditie cuando hay una pluralidad de vendedores y compradores, que amortiguan cualquier alteración de su disponibilidad y, por lo tanto, de su precio. En cambio, un producto o un mercado es estratégico cuando son esenciales en la economía, como el petróleo o el acero; son indispensables para las necesidades inmediatas de la población, como lo vimos en la crisis alimentaria del año 2008; o el acceso a esos productos está condicionado a factores geopolíticos, ya sea porque existen barreras de entrada que deciden los países según sus alianzas (por ejemplo, la objeción de vender gas boliviano a Chile), porque hay problemas de disponibilidad de un recurso en el mercado (como ocurre con la caída de los inventarios del cobre o el impacto de una huelga en su precio) o son vitales para la economía de un país (como son los requerimientos industriales de China).<br /><br />El alza en el precio de muchos commodities está vinculada a estos factores. En el caso de los minerales, por ejemplo, lo estratégico está cada vez más asociado a la seguridad de su suministro. Las fusiones de empresas globales, los estímulos y restricciones que están aplicando varios países a las empresas y las fuertes inversiones mineras están orientadas a garantizar el acceso a estos insumos básicos. Eso les otorga importancia geopolítica y la capacidad de influencia en esos mercados es una fuente de poder para sus países.<br /><br />El litio está en esta categoría, porque es un combustible del futuro, como lo ha sido el petróleo. Su valoración estratégica sigue vigente, pero bajo este otro concepto.<br /><br />Esto no significa, linealmente, que el Estado sea el único que pueda explotarlo, sino que no es razonable que se quiera someterlo a la misma lógica liberal impulsada en los años ’80, como algunos promueven. Eso no es viable ni conveniente para Chile. En todo caso, mi opinión es que Codelco, que debe transformarse en una empresa minera global, no sólo de cobre, debería entrar agresivamente a desarrollar proyectos de litio a partir de las reservas disponibles en Chile.<br /><br />El segundo es que estamos ad portas de un ciclo más intensivo en el uso del litio, en parte por la necesidad global de un cambio en la matriz energética.<br /><br />La industria automotriz va a multiplicar su demanda por la necesidad de vehículos más económicos y más “verdes”. El año pasado el Presidente Obama inyectó recursos a las moribundas empresas de Detroit para desarrollar más eficientes motores y baterías en sus modelos. Japón está financiando el proyecto de Toyota con Oroncobre en el salar de Jujuy. La Mitsubishi materializó un acuerdo con la empresa australiana Galaxy Resources para ser su proveedor de litio y tiene una alianza con GS Yuasa para el desarrollo de su tecnología. Nissan, BMW y Volkswagen anuncian modelos para el próximo año en base a baterías recargables. La emergente industria China, además de competir en estos modelos, busca bajar la dependencia de un petróleo menos accesible para ellos por la influencia política y militar que todavía ejerce Estados Unidos en los países productores. En todos estos casos los estados están involucrados en la reconfiguración de la industria.<br /><br />A su vez, el proyecto ITER, que busca crear un reactor de fusión nuclear, comenzó como un pacto de colaboración entre Estados Unidos, la Unión Europea, Japón y Rusia, al que después se sumaron Corea del Sur, India y China. Todos ellos trabajan en un modelo experimental, Tokamak, que se instaló en Francia el año 2006. De hecho, esa decisión fue objeto de una dura disputa que estuvo cerca de dividirlos, porque Estados Unidos objetaba que el reactor se emplazara en Francia luego de su rechazo a la invasión de Irak. Y, por último, cabe destacar que Brasil quiere ingresar al ITER aportando fondos y minerales.<br /><br />Esta energía va a ser una fuente de poder mundial y, desde luego, sus actores tomarán una posición de liderazgo global. Una de sus contrapartes van a ser los proveedores de litio, entre los cuales puede estar Chile.<br /><br />El tercero es el mapa de las reservas de litio y qué ventajas competitivas va a tener cada país.<br /><br />No hay una información acabada de cuántas reservas existen, pero la tende<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYbGeEkcQmUJsK5r4jquZARo581IKl0Qe6cr0cmBQKRxXfLsjQss3oYavOhmA-fR8L-En9HmzVRPKsYjFpXdt-clAXYBJXVV_-2hyYUOI1XviUwKD_R-e1lP8drx0-lJoenWwk0cRi8Ki9/s1600/salar_atacama.jpg"><img style="float: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; cursor: pointer; width: 200px; height: 134px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYbGeEkcQmUJsK5r4jquZARo581IKl0Qe6cr0cmBQKRxXfLsjQss3oYavOhmA-fR8L-En9HmzVRPKsYjFpXdt-clAXYBJXVV_-2hyYUOI1XviUwKD_R-e1lP8drx0-lJoenWwk0cRi8Ki9/s200/salar_atacama.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5551059330513596914" border="0" /></a>ncia es a su expansión por las nuevas exploraciones y descubrimientos. Chile tiene grandes yacimientos, pero se sabe que Bolivia podría duplicar nuestras reservas, Argentina tendría niveles similares y se especula con grandes depósitos de litio en China, Rusia, Afganistán y Estados Unidos.<br /><br />El triángulo entre Chile, Bolivia y Argentina ya adquirió relevancia mundial. Es considerado un poder emergente en un mercado estratégico. El desarrollo de su producción, infraestructura y comercialización puede tener sinergias entre los tres países y, por lo mismo, tiene el desafío de evitar tensiones políticas o militares por la pretensión de ganar ventajas limitando a uno u otro. La cuestión de la salida al mar de Bolivia volverá a tener la solidaridad de los países interesados en sus exportaciones de litio, como a principios del 2000 la tuvo en torno al gas natural. Chile tiene ventajas competitivas naturales que no requieren de una estrategia beligerante para preservar sus oportunidades.<br /><br />Ninguno de nuestros países, sin embargo, está invirtiendo en el desarrollo de las tecnologías del litio: aleaciones, baterías o usos nucleares. De nuevo su lugar es básicamente la explotación primaria del mineral.<br /><br />Chile tiene que salir de su parálisis actual, acelerar su explotación y construir alianzas para participar de la investigación y desarrollo de los usos del litio. En esta etapa esas son inversiones a una escala en las que Chile puede participar. Incluso, al igual que Brasil, Chile podría ser parte del proyecto ITER. Las reservas internacionales del país le permitirían considerar esa inversión y otras contribuciones minerales a la iniciativa.<br /><br />El debate sobre su carácter estratégico tiene que ser práctico, no ideológico.<br /><br />Y, por cierto, asumir que no hay espacio como para repetir en el litio el modelo de concesiones de los años ’80. Se requiere un nuevo consenso que cuide la posición geopolítica de Chile en este mercado emergente.<br />(<a href="http://www.elmostrador.cl/noticias/negocios/2010/11/15/litio-la-apuesta-estrategica-de-chile/">ElMostrador</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-83483911622882115002010-11-30T17:10:00.009+01:002011-02-09T15:37:10.784+01:00CHOLERA SPREADERS. (Untori)<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo1qUnDC4Ekunrr90qf0ZHcRGu4oxIZz3mWfJmmPdwAXCYLwLKpLWOKXaMpA8OamwVQbmaDReC9wBMHAEinVzdqdjRQYQCk8KhYu1hvz-a9mZ_To6f8tM_xuee96TElkjfJh28TDDRvMZp/s1600/cholera_haiti.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 214px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo1qUnDC4Ekunrr90qf0ZHcRGu4oxIZz3mWfJmmPdwAXCYLwLKpLWOKXaMpA8OamwVQbmaDReC9wBMHAEinVzdqdjRQYQCk8KhYu1hvz-a9mZ_To6f8tM_xuee96TElkjfJh28TDDRvMZp/s320/cholera_haiti.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5545377984714317730" border="0" /></a>L'epidemia di colera che ad Haiti ha ucciso più di 1600 persone non è una conseguenza del terremoto, perché il ceppo del batterio non ha origine locale, ma è stato portato da fuori. È quanto sostiene oggi l'epidemiologo francese Renaud Perraux, rientrato in Francia da una missione nell'isola.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />Perraux ha detto oggi all'agenzia France Presse che l'epidemia "ha avuto inizio nel centro del paese, non sul mare, non nei campi profughi". "È proprio per questo - aggiunge - che non può essere di origine locale, ma è stata importata".<br /><br />Secondo responsabili haitiani, i primi casi di colera sono apparsi a metà ottobre nei pressi del campo delle forze di pace dell'ONU (Minustah), di cui molti soldati erano di origine nepalese. Questi ultimi sono stati accusati da una parte della popolazione di essere all'origine della diffusione del virus.<br /><br />Una versione ritenuta possibile anche dal medico francese Gerard Chevallier, che ha lavorato con il professor Perraux. L'ONU ha sempre sostenuto che non vi fossero prove del fatto che la diffusione del colera fosse stata provocata dalla presenza delle sue truppe.<br />(<a href="http://www.swissinfo.ch/ita/rubriche/notizie_d_agenzia/mondo_brevi/Haiti:_colera%20_epidemiologo_Parigi,_ceppo_non_e_haitiano.html?cid=28910296">SwissInfo</a>)<br /><br />----------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />In questi giorni i media di tutto il mondo si scandalizzano per quella che viene definita “caccia all’untore”. Ad Haiti, soprattutto nelle città del nord dell’isola, sono iniziate infatti pesanti contestazioni ai danni dei soldati dell’Onu. La missione, di cui parlammo qualche post fa, si chiama Minustah (Missions des Nationes Unies pour Stabilitation en Haiti ) ed è ad Haiti dal 2004, quando fu spedita qui per evitare una guerra civile. Il presidente Aristide infatti, scottato da essere stato detronizzato dai militari e temendo un nuovo colpo di stato, sciolse da un giorno all’altro l’esercito.<br /><br />I caschi blu in questi anni hanno stabilizzato la situazione politica (anche se a Port-au-Prince le sparatorie sono una assoluta costante del panorama cittadino). I soldati brasiliani in particolare hanno attaccato qualche anno fa il fortino delle bande armate (Cité Soleil) e ristabilito un minimo di ordine nella vita cittadina.<br /><br />Dal terremoto però la missione (che è civile e militare, ma prettamente civile) non si è riconvertita per aiutare la popolazione di fronte a questa ennesima sciagura. E così, a differenza di quanto avvenne in Bosnia, il genio militare dell’Onu non si è dato da fare, ad esempio, per sistemare le infrastrutture. Anche i blindati bianchi con scritto UN transitano lungo strade devastate e guadano i fiumi dove i ponti sono crollati.<br /><br />L’impressione dunque è che non ci sia molta fiducia tra gli haitiani verso i caschi blu. E forse gli stessi soldati che provengono dal resto del mondo avrebbero voglia di fare qualcosa di più per aiutare chi ha bisogno, senza girare armati di tutto punto in mezzo a baracche e tende.<br /><br />Ora si sospetta che siano stati i caschi blu nepalesi a portare il colera ad Haiti. Il vibrione sull’isola mancava da sessant’anni e non si è sviluppato malgrado le drammatiche condizioni igieniche, peggiorate dal terremoto. In un libro che ho letto prima di partire (Haiti, il silenzio infranto, di Lucia Capuzzi) gli esperti delle Ong si dicevano stupiti che non fosse scoppiata un’epidemia di colera. Che invece ha preso il là non lontano da dove i caschi blu nepalesi hanno il loro quartier generale. In Nepal il colera è endemico. Il sospetto che siano stati i nepalesi a portare questa malattia sull’isola non è stata diffusa da qualche blog locale ma dal portavoce dell’Onu ad Haiti (smentito, a stretto giro di comunicati stampa, dalla Minustah: ma ormai il danno era fatto).<br /><br />Secondo elemento che molti osservatori stranieri sembrano dimenticare di fronte all’escalation di violenza anti-Onu sull’isola sono le elezioni. Il 28 novembre ci sarà il primo turno delle presidenziali e si rinnoverà il parlamento. I candidati sono 19 e al ballottaggio andranno solo in due. Molti hanno quindi interesse a destabilizzare la situazione, a sobillare gli animi per ottenere voti o quantomeno posti di potere.<br /><br />Da qui a quando si apriranno le urne, la situazione non potrò che peggiorare. Soprattutto se il numero dei morti per colera continuerà a crescere ogni giorno.<br /><br />Ad maiora<br />(<a href="http://andreariscassi.wordpress.com/2010/11/18/haiti-il-colera-gli-untori-e-il-voto/">Andrea Riscassi's blog)</a><br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-75757103740776564732010-11-15T13:39:00.002+01:002010-11-15T13:49:56.316+01:00DIPLOMACY OF THE ABSURD. (Diplomazia dell'assurdo)<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdukorSuwmcQciuY81yGEJ0ICvo9PSAlbkL88EF781UzX5EfOZNXvY5C8QI9kj53WYhW5uOjo8WEmgDm_3B6AkEm5rHTRMJ0IukaxtUlyQ0xprCNisjU7QQEco8fsPb2bJIfOXnFdXOodz/s1600/AhmjadPutinPoster.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdukorSuwmcQciuY81yGEJ0ICvo9PSAlbkL88EF781UzX5EfOZNXvY5C8QI9kj53WYhW5uOjo8WEmgDm_3B6AkEm5rHTRMJ0IukaxtUlyQ0xprCNisjU7QQEco8fsPb2bJIfOXnFdXOodz/s320/AhmjadPutinPoster.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5539757812482356770" border="0" /></a>Il 14 febbraio del 2005 nelle strade di Beirut, grazie a 100 kg di tritolo, venne assassinato Rafiq Hariri, ex primo ministro dimissionario del governo libanese.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />L'omicidio, oltre a ricordare quello di Falcone nelle modalità (in quel caso si trattò di 350 chili di dinamite, molto più potente del tritolo), lo ricorda anche per le conseguenze: la conflagrazione infatti catalizzò le forze politiche che giostravano (e giostrano) intorno all'area cardine del medio oriente facendole venire allo scontro aperto. Scontro che ha raggiunto il suo apice con la tentata invasione israeliana del libano nel luglio 2006.<br /><br />Ancora oggi in occidente ci si chiede ipocritamente chi abbia assassinato il leader politico libanese, mentre sui giornali è già stato deciso che il colpevole doveva essere la Siria. Il fatto che Hariri stesso avesse più volte dichiarato pubblicamente che proprio la Siria era assolutamente necessaria alla protezione del suo paese contro Israele ed avesse allo stesso tempo rifiutato di implementare la legislazione anti-terrorismo caldeggiata dagli USA (come ricorda la wikipedia inglese, ma invece censura quella italiana) non viene minimamente ricordato.<br /><br />Fallito il tentativo di rompere l'impasse con la violenza della ricordata invasione del 2006, il fronte occidentale ha cominciato a circuire Bashar al-Assad, il presidente siriano, con la promessa di aprire il mondo al suo paese, da tempo sotto embargo internazionale. Diversi articoli sui mezzi da guerra mediatica anglosassoni (The Economist, Financial Times, National Geographic) cominciavano subito a riabilitare l'immagine di quello che fino a poche ore prima era un stato canaglia tra i neuroni facilmente impressionabili di buona parte dei propri lettori.<br /><br />Il processo di normalizzazione nelle relazioni USA-Siria lo scorso mese di ottobre (il 4 per l'esattezza) portava ad un contrattacco nel caso “Hariri”, con la Siria che all'improvviso spiccava dei mandati di arresto internazionali contro 33 rappresentanti governativi libanesi con la stessa accusa che questi gli avevano rivolto precedentemente (la responsabilità dell'assassinio di Hariri). I mandati ovviamente non hanno alcuna speranza di essere eseguiti, perché l'Interpol difficilmente li avallerebbe. Ma dal punto di vista politico rappresentano uno stravolgimento sia nei rapporti di forza interni libanesi, che in quelli più vasti dell'area.<br /><br />Il momento in cui tutto questo avveniva, lo scorso ottobre, ha anche altri risvolti, poiché la richiesta emessa dai giudici siriani preludeva, facendone da supporto, alla visita ufficiale del presidente iraniano Ahmadinejad in Libano che sarebbe iniziata il 13 seguente e che poi si sarebbe rivelata un immenso successo diplomatico iraniano.<br /><br />La Siria si sarebbe dunque presa gioco di Washington? Forse sì, forse no, perché se da un lato il segretario di Stato USA, Hillary Clinton, continua ad esprimersi con toni aggressivi (“Il comportamento della Siria non ha soddisfatto le nostre aspettative degli ultimi 20 mesi, e le azioni siriane non hanno soddisfatto li suoi obblighi internazionali”, AFP 12 Novembre 2010), dall'altro il senatore democratico Kerry, in visita a Damasco, “ha sottolineato il ruolo della Siria nel raggiungimento della sicurezza e della stabilità nell'area” (9 novembre 2010), in effetti mostrandosi ansioso di trovare un punto d'incontro.<br /><br />Quello che però sembra di poter leggere tra le righe è che il rinnovato feeling tra Teheran e Damasco, teatralmente messo in mostra nell'occasione ricordata sopra, non abbia inciso sul riavvicinamento tra Damasco e Washington. La qual cosa dovrebbe stupire non poco, visto che non facciamo altro che leggere peste e corna sui “fondamentalisti” persiani.<br /><br />Se però includiamo nel quadro l'improvviso calo nei rapporti tra Teheran e Mosca, che recentemente insieme a Pechino ha appoggiato nuove sanzioni dell'ONU contro l'Iran ed è tornata indietro sulla vendita di armamenti (vedi dichiarazioni Ahmedinejad del 4 novemnbre) possiamo cominciare ad intravedere qualcos'altro prendere forma, e cioè un incredibile riavvicinamento tra gli Stati Uniti e l'Iran in chiave anti-russa ed anti-cinese.<br /><br />Ecco perché la Siria non è stato “punita” dopo la sua spavalda dimostrazione di supporto nei confronti dell' “amico” Ahmendinejad: Damasco rappresenta la principale leva che Obama sta utilizzando per centrare un impensabile colpo politico.<br /><br />Un colpo che qualora fosse messo a segno, potrebbe riaprire una immensa ferita che dopo oltre 150 anni stenta a cicatrizzarsi, una ferita che nella Mosca ortodossa chiamano la “Questione orientale”, sfociata nel 1856 nella tremenda Guerra di Crimea, l'evento politico che più di ogni altri ha determinato il destino della Sicilia nel XIX e nel XX secolo, quando la sconfitta delle “terza Roma” ad opera di musulmani ed anglosassoni (questi ultimi sostenuti anche dalla cattolicissima Austria) aprì le porte all'avventura Garibaldina.<br /></div>(<a href="http://ilconsiglio.blogspot.com/2010/11/nuova-crimea.html">Il Consiglio</a>)Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-88398775010286259112010-10-14T21:10:00.004+02:002010-10-14T21:23:16.479+02:00UP THE IMMIGRANTS! (W gli immigrati!)<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLvsHxThoEqTEjJv2bJF-nPRG4LrGV8jlESv4IAuLOaZP6r0a7BzF2LcTrAec1RACDKhNWqyDhyphenhyphenb1Vyl6v2pOgXsUHB5T0OmY86MA6ne-7F-qemqE_Gu7NXAlik65wr_KwEC4K-gZ9kb_v/s1600/070314-obermann-171x143-pi.jpeg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 268px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLvsHxThoEqTEjJv2bJF-nPRG4LrGV8jlESv4IAuLOaZP6r0a7BzF2LcTrAec1RACDKhNWqyDhyphenhyphenb1Vyl6v2pOgXsUHB5T0OmY86MA6ne-7F-qemqE_Gu7NXAlik65wr_KwEC4K-gZ9kb_v/s320/070314-obermann-171x143-pi.jpeg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5527984215654177634" border="0" /></a>L’uomo nella fotografia è René Obermann. Ha 47 anni. E’ nato a Düsseldorf e presiede dal 2006 una delle più importanti società di telecomunicazioni in Europa, Deutsche Telekom. René Obermann Il suo compito è gravoso. Deve fare i conti con un mercato molto competitivo, la concorrenza di internet e della telefonia mobile, e con un’azienda, ex monopolista pubblico, dove molti dipendenti sono abituati ad avere i privilegi di un funzionario dello stato. Tra le altre cose, la bolla high-tech dell’inizio del decennio ha lasciato in eredità al gruppo tedesco un debito che alla fine di giugno era pari a 46 miliardi di euro. Questa settimana Obermann ha pubblicato un interessante commento su Handelsblatt, il giornale economico tedesco, in cui fa le lodi dell’immigrazione. Il tutto mentre in Germania il leader bavarese Horst Seehofer ha proposto di bloccare l'arrivo di stranieri musulmani; la Spagna ha lanciato un programma di rimpatrio dolce, offrendo pacchetti finanziari agli immigrati che tornano nel loro paese; la Francia espelle i Rom; l'Italia oscilla, senza strategia, tra accoglienza e rigetto; e l'Olanda si è appena dotata di un governo che ha l'appoggio esterno di un partito anti-islamico.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />Prima di tutto, Obermann fa notare che tra il 2005 e il 2050 il numero di giovani tra i 16 e i 20 anni si dimezzerà in Germania. Ve ne saranno tra 40 anni appena due milioni. Secondo Obermann questa tendenza è particolarmente grave perché è tra i più giovani che si trovano e si troveranno i talenti del futuro. “Talenti e lavoratori bravi sono vitali per le imprese”, spiega il presidente di Deutsche Telekom. In questo contesto, afferma Obermann, gli immigrati in Germania sono un tesoro di cui approfittare. Coltivare i giovani stranieri, magari poco integrati nel sistema scolastico, è essenziale per permettere alle imprese di trovare nuovi ingegni. “Promuovere, favorire e impegnare questi giovani è per le imprese una chance molto importante, poiché queste giovane persone portano con sé varietà culturali che possono sostenere il potere d’innovazione e la creatività”. E aggiunge: “La varietà culturale è uno dei principali fattori di successo per affrontare la concorrenza globale, in particolare nell’economia di internet”. Troppo spesso quando si parla (bene) dell’immigrazione uomini politici e capitani d’industria si concentrano sulla presenza di nuove braccia e di nuovi consumatori. Nel suo articolo Obermann sottolinea un aspetto troppo spesso dimenticato, soprattutto nei paesi più protezionisti e conservatori. C’è da chiedersi a questo punto quanto del successo tedesco sui grandi mercati internazionali dipenda dalla capacità delle imprese di approfittare della creatività o più semplicemente della ricchezza culturale dei suoi immigrati.<br />(<a href="http://bedaromano.blog.ilsole24ore.com/2010/10/e-se-lexport-tedesco-fosse-anche-funzione-dei-suoi-immigrati.html#more">GermaniE</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-25084994896906566292010-09-25T16:48:00.003+02:002010-09-25T16:59:18.231+02:00AND KLAUS FOUND HIMSELF PRO-RUSSIAN... (E Klaus si scoprì pro-russo...)<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg0WTqMB-Gpq3OX03wuOqlC8YS9_CITElXlbE5oXIgqOhyphenhyphennTLMe7sgYb8bItVHNw2wGyYxjBHo-LC4Ky8Xp_7Q_2x4oA2wxSw0lVJSSmc1ktiazRq761wkNtt42VuDTkhPMyIksSalfRaF/s1600/2-1.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 127px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg0WTqMB-Gpq3OX03wuOqlC8YS9_CITElXlbE5oXIgqOhyphenhyphennTLMe7sgYb8bItVHNw2wGyYxjBHo-LC4Ky8Xp_7Q_2x4oA2wxSw0lVJSSmc1ktiazRq761wkNtt42VuDTkhPMyIksSalfRaF/s320/2-1.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5520865109381569106" border="0" /></a>One man's signature was all it would take to end eight years of tortuous negotiations and contentious national referenda. That effort had finally yielded the Lisbon Treaty, a new agreement among members of the European Union that would provide the community with its first constitution and president. The final hurdle was securing that one politician's signature, but European leaders were growing frantic last October because he wasn't answering his telephone.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />Instead Vaclav Klaus, the Czech president, had embarked on an international tour to promote his new book, "Blue Planet in Green Shackles," an anti-global-warming manifesto in which Klaus -- who has denounced Al Gore as an "apostle of arrogance" -- dismisses manmade climate change as a myth.<br /><br />Klaus's main destination was Moscow, where LUKoil, the giant Russian oil company, was paying for the book's translation. Speaking in the Kremlin, the Czech leader, his white hair closely cropped and mustache fastidiously trimmed, condemned the EU -- which he once compared to the Soviet Union -- as elitist and undemocratic.<br /><br />It was an extraordinary state of affairs: a tiny new EU member impeding, if not quite derailing, a historic community development. Klaus eventually signed the Lisbon Treaty, but only after his protracted opposition had frayed the EU's already fragile unity. Critics of Europe's rudest politician, as he's been described, accused him of hijacking the treaty in order to steal the limelight.<br /><br />Although most Czechs say their president genuinely believes in his anti-European tirades, many were dismayed. But Klaus's trip to Moscow raised eyebrows for another reason: to many observers, he appeared to be acting in the interests of the Kremlin, and not for the first time.<br /><br />In the 1990s, Klaus promoted Czech oil and gas agreements with Russia before opposing a deal to buy gas from Norway as "economically unviable." (When Moscow cut off supplies flowing through Ukraine in 2006 and 2009, the deal helped enable the Czech Republic to avoid major energy crises.) In 1999, he joined the Kremlin's angry condemnation of NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia over Kosovo. A decade later as president, he appeared to back Russia's invasion of Georgia by declaring that the responsibility of Moscow's former Soviet neighbor was "unexceptionable and fatal."<br /><br />Czech President Vaclav Klaus (right) is seen as moving ever closer to Russia and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.<br />A trained economist, Klaus has served as prime minister or president during most of the Czech Republic's postcommunist history. The staunch free-marketeer -- who keeps a photograph of Margaret Thatcher prominently displayed in his office -- oversaw the transition of a centrally planned economy into one of the former Soviet bloc's most successful markets before emerging as a leading voice of the country's right wing. So you'd be forgiven for thinking it somewhat of a paradox that he's come out on Moscow's side on almost every major issue.<br /><br />Klaus's resistance to signing the Lisbon Treaty, despite being obligated to do so by Czech law, put him in step with the Kremlin yet again, this time over one of Moscow's biggest foreign-policy goals: splitting European unity. Klaus has backed Moscow so consistently over the years that jokes in Prague about his being a Russian agent prompt chuckles tinged with more than a little nervousness.<br /><br />Journalist Jaroslav Plesl, who has investigated Russian influence in the Czech Republic, believes it doesn't matter whether the gossip contains any truth. "You don't need to see any documents, even if they exist," he says. "The Russians want the European Union to be as weak as possible, and for that purpose, Klaus serves their interests well."<br /><br />But there are worries that Klaus, who refused requests for an interview, is just the tip of the iceberg. A growing number of Czech politicians across the spectrum appear to have ties to Russia in one or another form, and it's setting off alarm bells. Twenty years after the end of communism -- and four decades after the Red Army crushed the Prague Spring in 1968 -- a few lonely voices are warning that the Czech Republic and its neighbors are in danger of falling under Moscow's influence once again. This time, they say, the threat isn't from Russia's tanks but the one business in which Russia leads the world: energy.<br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVSBLaoFJmFISpnwXUe_irDUhrC96LOqPKH6nurFT3NEJ8UF_W92OOYkkeKvJzJScEEfwTKBjQ41uPGnbaKaqYAVVqRP7t3SOrpERSkaCCoPzkFi1r17fOMlY1i1RCePxNfum4_SOU_06K/s1600/0,1020,595657,00.jpg"><img style="float: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; cursor: pointer; width: 180px; height: 167px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVSBLaoFJmFISpnwXUe_irDUhrC96LOqPKH6nurFT3NEJ8UF_W92OOYkkeKvJzJScEEfwTKBjQ41uPGnbaKaqYAVVqRP7t3SOrpERSkaCCoPzkFi1r17fOMlY1i1RCePxNfum4_SOU_06K/s320/0,1020,595657,00.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5520865813029676450" border="0" /></a><br />That was the message from a group of prominent Central and Eastern European politicians led by former President Vaclav Havel, Klaus's predecessor and nemesis, who published an open letter to President Barack Obama last summer. The West, they wrote, should abandon its mistaken belief that the end of the Cold War and the expansion of the EU and NATO into the former Soviet bloc guaranteed their countries were "safe."<br /><br />Criticism that Washington may be abandoning allies in Central and Eastern Europe in favor of "resetting" relations with Moscow is growing ever louder. But some believe it's distracting from the real threat in this part of the world. A handful of politicians, journalists, and former intelligence officers say rampant corruption is making Czechs vulnerable to exploitation by a resurgent Russia with ready cash to help fulfill its burning desire to reestablish its influence over former Soviet bloc countries.<br /><br />Unlike Western firms, which lobby largely in their own interests, Russian state-controlled and private enterprises play an integral role in Kremlin foreign policy, and they're "undoubtedly influencing the behavior of various Czech political parties and politicians," Havel said in an interview. "I've seen several cases where the influence started quietly and slowly began projecting onto our foreign policy. I can only advise serious discretion and great caution."<br /><br />As one objective in a grand strategy, the Czech Republic sheds light on just how Moscow works. It's no secret Russia is the world's biggest exporter of oil and gas, especially to Central and Eastern European countries, some of which depend on Russia for around 90 percent of their supplies. But in the Czech Republic, Moscow is playing for an industry that's been promoted as central to securing the country's energy independence: nuclear power. A Russian company is bidding for the biggest nuclear energy deal in history, and many believe it will win.<br /><br />Klaus's offices are in Prague's storied castle, a dark medieval hulk that looms over a Baroque city of spires. Despite its architectural charms, however, outside the center, much of Prague remains gritty, a city still emerging from its communist past. But some neighborhoods stand out. Near the castle hill above the curving Vltava River, a collection of villas lines the leafy streets of one of Prague's toniest quarters. It's here that many of the city's wealthy Russians have settled.<br /><br />To those Russians, Prague is a more affordable version of London: an urban asylum that's safer and more civilized than teeming, lawless Moscow, and a convenient few hours' flight away. Russian law firms, food stores and hairdressers serve not only the rich, but a growing number of their middle-class compatriots. The neighborhood is also home to the Russian Embassy, which occupies a sprawling palace and includes a Russian Orthodox church, and, according to Czech intelligence, provides a place for at least 60 Russian intelligence officers and agents, or a third of the Russian diplomatic community, from which to operate.<br /><br />Last year, the government expelled two Russian diplomats suspected of spying. Many Czechs believe they'd taken part in a large-scale Russian effort to rally public opinion against the construction of a radar base that was to be part of the U.S. missile defense shield. But Czech media later reported the Russians were probably conducting industrial espionage. In a report issued in June, the Czech counterintelligence service warned that Russian espionage was "aggressive" and escalating, especially in the energy business.<br /><br />That development worries Karel Randak, the soft-spoken former head of the Czech intelligence service whose close-cropped salt-and-pepper hair gives him the appearance more of a scholar than spy. But espionage is only part of the way Moscow is seeking to expand its influence here. Although Randak insists most Russian businessmen behave no differently from their Western counterparts, he says some of the biggest Russian companies operate by stealth, through a dizzying web of shell companies nominally owned and operated by Czechs but actually controlled by Moscow.<br /><br />Among them, a gas-trading company named Vemex has taken 12 percent of the Czech domestic market since its establishment in 2001 to sell Russian natural gas. Although there's nothing on Vemex's website to indicate it, the company is Czech in name only. It's actually controlled by Gazprom through a series of companies based in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria, including Centrex Europe Energy and Gas, which has helped spearhead the Russian drive to buy energy assets across Europe.<br /><br />Centrex is registered in Austria, and, according to Gazprom's website, founded by its own Gazprombank. But the company's real ownership is impossible to trace. According to the European Commission, Centrex is owned by Centrex Group Holding Ltd., registered in Cyprus, a company controlled by Gazprom's German subsidiary, and RN Privatsiftung, a Vienna foundation whose stockholders are unknown.<br /><br />Why go to the trouble of hiding the real owners of companies either already known or believed to be controlled by Gazprom? Vemex is just one of a large number of enterprises Gazprom has set up in countries across Central and Eastern Europe to muscle into the European energy-utilities business. By disguising the real owners, Gazprom makes its actions more palatable to Europeans wary of expanding Russian influence.<br /><br />Randak, who began his intelligence career tracking Russian criminal groups in the 1990s, says the Russians first gained control over organized crime in the Czech Republic from the Italian Mafia around 1992. Beginning with "normal criminal activities," mainly racketeering, they branched into white-collar crime in the mid-1990s. "They hired lawyers and established local companies with Czech board members," Randak says. "Now they're involved in 'real business' because they have real money." And they're controlled by, or work with, the Russian government. "This is the real danger coming from Russia."<br /><br />The character Victor Laszlo, the fugitive Czech resistance leader in the film "Casablanca," may represent the most common image of the country in the West: rigid, pure, and dedicated, fighting against the victimization of a foreign oppressor. As always, the reality is more complicated. Journalist Jaroslav Plesl, who's one of the country's leading political commentators, blames his own countrymen for their scant concern about the danger from Moscow. "They're willing to sell anything," he says. "If you want to influence politics here, you need to do business with only a very few people, and you can pretty much control the country."<br /><br />"That's something the Russians have been able to exploit," Plesl says. "Just look at Karlovy Vary."<br /><br />Nowhere is the Russian presence more visible than in the storied spa town in the hilly west of the country that's a popular vacation destination for Russians. Many of the town's buildings belong to Russians, including the grand Imperial Hotel, owned by a Russian-born businessman who got his start in the region overseeing Soviet uranium mining in the 1970s and where Klaus often stays. "Russians can do whatever they want without permission," Plesl says, "and if they do need approval for something, they'll bribe city hall to get it." During a low ebb in relations, Czechs joked the Kremlin once warned it would bomb Prague if the government wasn't careful. "If you're not careful," the Czech prime minister replied, "we'll bomb Karlovy Vary."<br /><br />With some 50 of its filling stations dotting the countryside, LUKoil is Russia's most public face in the Czech Republic. Last year, the company also secured a contract to supply 20 percent of the jet fuel used at Prague's International Airport. No other companies bid for the deal, despite a pledge by then-Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek -- a bitter opponent of Klaus's who's raised serious concerns about the danger of Russian control over Czech strategic companies -- to diversify his country's energy supplies.<br /><br />That may be because LUKoil has serious pull. According to the Czech media, the company's CEO Vagit Alekperov -- who enjoys close ties to Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin -- twice secretly met Klaus in the Prague Castle. One of the meetings is reported to have taken place in November 2008, around the time LUKoil announced it would expand its business in the Czech Republic, prompting rumors of a backroom deal. When asked by journalists about the meetings, Klaus reacted angrily, but didn't deny they took place.<br /><br />The government's decision to award the contract to LUKoil helped reverse a drive to free the country from dependence on Russian oil, the only source until a pipeline from Germany began delivering supplies in 1995 -- against Klaus's wishes. That channel now provides some 20 percent of the country's oil, but according to Jaroslav Spurny -- one of the country's most prominent investigative journalists, who writes for the magazine "Respekt" -- LUKoil now wants to take control of the pipeline and reverse the flow so that Russian supplies would be sent west through the Czech Republic. "That would make us fully dependent on Russian oil again," Spurny says, "which would mean a kind of dictatorship."<br /><br />LUKoil and other Russian companies contacted for this article declined to provide interviews. But Russian Chamber of Commerce representative Sergei Mikoyan says LUKoil, like any company, is naturally seeking to expand its business for its own interests. "Why should Russia excuse itself for having enough money to buy property abroad?" he asks, adding that charges of a grand Kremlin plan to snap up European energy assets can be made only by people who "simply don't like Russia. No matter what Russia does, they'll always find skeletons in the closet."<br /><br />Mikoyan says the Czech government can easily rule any company operating in the country off-limits on the grounds of strategic importance, otherwise "say openly they're for sale, but not to the Russians, which would be unfair and not part of free enterprise."<br /><br />Whatever its motives, LUKoil is cultivating ties with a number of politicians in addition to Klaus. Among them is a popular former prime minister named Milos Zeman, who recently left the Social Democratic Party to start his own left-wing Citizens' Rights Party. While denying allegations that it is financed by LUKoil, the party admits taking money from Russian-connected lobbyists. Chief among them is Miroslav Slouf, a former communist youth leader whose Slavia Consulting company brokered the LUKoil deal to supply Prague's airport. Slouf, who is known to be LUKoil's main promoter in the Czech Republic, also happens to be Zeman's right-hand man.<br /><br />Zeman denies he benefits from Russian money. At his party headquarters in central Prague, the blunt, hard-drinking, old-school pol -- who many believe hopes to succeed Klaus as president in 2013 -- bridled in response to a question about the influence of lobbyists such as Slouf. "Let me give you a lesson in political science," he says. "They're engaged in a respectable job." Besides, "we haven't received a single penny from LUKoil."<br /><br />Members of the country's small circle of pro-American politicians disagree, among them Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, a pipe-smoking Hapsburg prince. "There are very strong lobbying groups here, very strong," he said in an interview shortly before he joined the cabinet in July. "A lot of Russian firms are under the influence of the state, especially in the energy sector. And Russia is increasingly turning into an authoritarian state. There's always a danger that economic influence turns into political influence."<br /><br />Former Green Party leader Martin Bursik, who also served as environment minister, is one of the loudest critics of the central role lobbyists play in Czech politics. He says it's opened the door for Moscow to reassert its influence by reactivating a network of communist-era officials. "The kind of transparent, legal lobbying conducted by the U.S. president or secretary of state can hardly compete," he says.<br /><br />That's being made clear by jockeying over the nuclear energy deal some believe is so important it will influence the country's future development.<br /><br />In the region of South Bohemia, an hour south of Prague by car, picturesque but rundown villages dot miles of flat, bucolic farmland. Until you approach the village of Temelin, where four surreal-looking cooling towers loom over the land. They're part of a nuclear power plant soon to become the focus of the biggest business deal in Czech history. The state power conglomerate that owns the plant, CEZ (pronounced "chess"), plans to build two new reactors, and possibly more elsewhere.<br /><br />Started in the 1980s, construction on the Temelin plant was interrupted by the fall of communism. Westinghouse later completed the project, but last year CEZ discharged the U.S.-based company as supplier of nuclear fuel in favor of a Russian state-controlled firm.<br /><br />Temelin and a second, larger nuclear power plant currently produce a third of Czech electricity. Although coal provides the biggest share of Czech energy, about 60 percent, the government plans to shut down the oldest, most polluting plants over the next decade. Temelin's new reactors are expected to make up the difference, about 10 percent of the country's energy.<br /><br />Critics are worried about how the expansion plans will be handled, partly because CEZ isn't just any power company. It's the largest utility and biggest public company in Central and Eastern Europe, with a net profit last year five times that of the four biggest Czech banks combined. CEZ finances the two largest political parties and is so central to politics and business, one observer calls the Czech Republic an "electrostate." Others have dubbed it the "CEZ Republic."<br /><br />CEZ, which is 70 percent state-owned, also illustrates the deep murkiness of Czech politics. In May, the Green Party publicly called on the company to reveal its ownership structure, alleging the firm stands at the center of "a network of loyalties and linkages in a nontransparent environment. That network includes courts, police, prosecutors, regional governments, and political parties." The Greens are concerned that internal CEZ corruption will affect the outcome of the Temelin tender.<br /><br />A spokesman for the Temelin plant says the new reactors will be key to maintaining the country's "energy independence." But given that rationale, it may come as a surprise that a Russian state-controlled company, Atomstroieksport, is not only among just three bidders, but by many accounts ranks at the top of the list. Competing against Atomstroieksport are Westinghouse (the U.S. company was bought by Japan's Toshiba in 2007) and France's Areva. The firms will submit their offers this fall. The contract, worth between $15 billion and $30 billion, will be awarded next year, and the new reactors are expected to begin operation by 2020.<br /><br />CEZ says all three bidders are well qualified, and that the main consideration should be price. Others say the deal isn't about money. "It's a civilization choice," says Vaclav Bartuska, the Czech Republic's foreign envoy for energy-security issues. "I want my country to be tied to France or the U.S.," he explains. "I'm not lobbying for Areva or Westinghouse, just against the Russians."<br /><br />When CEZ announced the Temelin tender last year, the government said it was up to the company to decide who wins. But Bartuska succeeded in a single-handed campaign to make the choice political: now the government will have the final say. It's been a lonely battle. Bartuska, a dissident student leader under communism, is the only high-ranking government official to warn about the threat from Russian influence, for which he was criticized by even his own government for being "too pro-Western."<br /><br />The smiling former journalist -- who spoke in his airy office in a sprawling 17th-century palace that houses the Foreign Ministry -- says the difference between Russian and Western companies is the code by which they function. "Russian companies export corruption," he says.<br /><br />Bartuska points to a deal last year to build a new storage facility at Temelin for spent nuclear fuel. The sole bid submitted for the $80 million contract was from a company so shady that it's under investigation by the government. CEEI is believed to be Russian-controlled, but its ownership remains unknown. The trail stops at a Liechtenstein-based firm called U.B.I.E., where former Liechtenstein Prime Minister Markus Buechel is a director. He's also Russia's honorary consul to Liechtenstein.<br /><br />Buechel has said even he doesn't know who ultimately owns CEEI. According to a Prague-based business newsletter called the "Fleet Sheet," however, he's asked what would be wrong if the owner did turn out to be Russian. The newsletter also reported CEEI board member Vladimir Hlavinka, a CEZ executive, as dismissing concerns over CEEI. The country's public-procurement law bars investigating bidders' ownership, he said, because that would amount to "discrimination."<br /><br />Critics of the CEEI deal say Germany recently built an almost identical storage facility for half the price. "Fleet Sheet's" American publisher, Erik Best, characterizes CEZ's actions as evidence of what he calls the "privatization of state authority," when state companies make decisions in the interests of their own executives instead of the state. Best says public projects in the Czech Republic are usually overpriced, undertaken less for the sake of improving infrastructure than the sums officials are able to skim from the contracts. He questions why Temelin's new storage facility was commissioned.<br /><br />"Was the real reason simply that they could build it, because that's 1.5 or 2 billion crowns [$70 million or $100 million]? That means someone got 1.5 or 2 billion crowns, and of course there are the rumors [CEEI] is ultimately owned by Russians," Best says.<br /><br />Temelin's spokesman has denied allegations of wrongdoing, saying the storage facility was necessary and long-planned. But energy envoy Bartuska agrees the questions surrounding CEEI are cause for serious concern about how CEZ will handle the upcoming reactor tender. Not least because one of CEEI's directors is in jail for trying to kidnap another, who happens to be Klaus's former chief of staff, in an alleged extortion attempt. Bartuska says that reminds him of incidents in countries such as Nigeria and "not how I want to see my own country."<br /><br />Bartuska believes the decision over the Temelin tender will affect much more than the nuclear industry alone. "Putin will be bidding not just for two reactors," he says, "but for [influence over] the entire Czech Republic." Jiri Kominek, an analyst who writes for the Jamestown Foundation, says Moscow is already putting "unprecedented" lobbying pressure on the Czech government, and expects it to be successful.<br /><br />Some opinion makers, including the editorial board of the "Hospodarske noviny" business newspaper -- where Plesl is a columnist -- are calling for banning Atomstroieksport from even participating in the tender. But that proposal is facing an uphill battle not least because the Russian company is expected to submit the lowest offer by far.<br /><br />Sergei Mikoyan of the Russian Chamber of Commerce dismisses the criticism that the state-controlled company would pose a threat to Czech national security. "On the contrary," he says, "the state's backing of Atomstroieksport is good because the Russian government can guarantee the project's security."<br /><br />For its part, Atomstroieksport has played down its connection to the Russian state, publicizing its bid by promising to subcontract up to 70 percent of the construction work on Temelin to Czech companies. The main beneficiary would be a nuclear-engineering firm called Skoda JS (separate from the eponymous car company, which is owned by Volkswagen). Last year, Atomstroieksport and Skoda JS formed a consortium to enter a joint bid, something Skoda JS director Miroslav Fiala says shows it's "not really a Russian offer, but from a consortium led by Skoda JS."<br /><br />But there's a catch. Although Skoda JS's Czech managers may represent its public face, the company is really Russian-owned, after its recent sale to the state-controlled industrial conglomerate OMZ. Pressed on that point, Fiala admits the Skoda JS-Atomstroieksport bid actually "represents Russian national capital." But he adds, "we're simply offering CEZ a competitive and safe project that will open great opportunities for Czech industry."<br /><br />"Fleet Sheet" publisher Best isn't convinced. "Skoda JS's sale to OMZ is a much bigger matter than anyone is willing to admit," he says. For one thing, the Czech company's ownership of the plant's designs "gives the Russians access to Westinghouse's commercial secrets."<br /><br />"They've just been simply better prepared than the French or the Americans," Best says of the Russians. "They've been more active coming in and setting up agreements with local suppliers. In that sense, they've done a better job than the Americans."<br /><br />Vice President Joe Biden lobbied for Westinghouse's bid when he visited Prague last winter. But Defense Minister Alexandr Vondra, who's among the most pro-American members of the political establishment, criticizes Washington for doing too little. In an interview before his recent appointment to the government, he rejected concerns the Temelin bid would automatically go the Russians, but "a more energetic approach [from Westinghouse] would certainly be appreciated."<br /><br />When Gazprom cut off gas supplies to Ukraine in 2006 in what looked very much like punishment for Kyiv's pro-Western policies, there was little doubt Moscow was using energy as a foreign-policy tool. European countries, whose supplies were also disrupted, vowed to diversify their supplies by looking to other sources and developing renewable energy. But Europe still depends on Russia for a quarter of its gas, and that figure is only set to grow.<br /><br />Those who believe Russian companies act differently than their Western counterparts see patterns in the Kremlin's drive to broaden control over Europe's energy infrastructure. Moscow's success in the past several years has been dramatic. Germany, Italy, and Hungary are among the countries to have joined projects to build two major new gas pipelines from Russia that would deepen Europe's dependence on Moscow. Earlier this year, Austria became the seventh country to sign on to Moscow's South Stream pipeline, which is planned to deliver supplies from Central Asia.<br /><br />Some believe Washington has fallen asleep at the wheel. "The U.S. never expected the Russian offensive would be so strong," Plesl says. But he sees signs the United States has started mapping the "damage" caused by the Russians, and "I think they're horrified."<br /><br />The U.S. Embassy in Prague and officials in Washington turned down requests for interviews. Some say it's ironic that a U.S. administration undertaking a historic drive to institute regulations at home isn't doing more to criticize the breakdown of rule of law among allies like the Czech Republic. "I don't think they care a bloody damn about us," Schwarzenberg, now foreign minister, said last spring. "We're just a very small country somewhere in Central Europe. Why should they care?"<br /><br />Following parliamentary elections in May, Schwarzenberg's TOP 09 party joined a new center-right coalition government that will decide the Temelin tender next year. The new government is led by the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), which has called for lessening dependence on Russia and fighting corruption, a top issue for many who support the new government. But Karel Randak, the former intelligence chief, says he's not optimistic because the previous center-right government -- also led by the ODS until it collapsed last year -- oversaw a rise in corruption.<br /><br />Questioned about the advantages corruption gives Moscow, Czech politicians routinely say EU membership guarantees their country independence. "I don't think ordinary investments from Russia, the United States, Italy, China, Japan, Brazil, Germany, France, or anywhere else are a threat to our national independence," says Jiri Paroubek, a former prime minister and Social Democrat leader who was seen as especially sympathetic to Moscow.<br /><br />But critics such as former Green Party leader Bursik warn that Moscow's activities in the Czech Republic have shown that any belief that membership in international organizations such as the EU is enough to ensure the rule of law is naive. Moreover, the actions of Klaus -- who founded the ODS -- like those of other Czech leaders, have contributed decisively to the EU's failure to mount a unified defense of its collective interests. That's essentially enabled Russia to dictate the rules of the energy game by making deals with individual countries' energy companies. "It's still a power game over who has influence within the Czech Republic," Bursik says. "It's still a battle between NATO and Russia."<br /><br />Although President Klaus has no formal say over Temelin's future, he's endorsed Atomstroieksport's bid. Klaus's critics contend that's part and parcel of his support for Moscow's position on virtually every foreign-policy issue. But energy envoy Bartuska doesn't believe Klaus is actually working for the Russians. "He loves to be alone against the flow, on climate change and many other things," he says. It's no secret that Klaus's recalcitrance is something Moscow has exploited.<br /><br />Bartuska, who's met Putin and Medvedev in the Kremlin, also says he knows how seductive a grand Kremlin reception can be. "When they give you the treatment, oh my! Suddenly you feel you're someone. Klaus can't even get a meeting in Washington. Where would you go?" Still, the real threat to Czechs, Bartuska says, doesn't come from Moscow "but from ourselves." The Czech Republic made a "huge leap" toward the West after 1989, he says, but "suddenly became dissatisfied, started looking around and saying, 'So this is it?'"<br /><br />Still, Bartuska says the game isn't up yet. Although he lost the fight to exclude Atomstroieksport from the Temelin tender, last June the government appointed him to oversee the process, a sign he says "speaks for itself."<br /><br />"Now we're on a threshold. Either we can go the way of Ukraine, a phony democracy with a few people who are rich. Or we can go back and try to be a normal boring European country in which law is law."<br /><br /></div>"But it's not a done deal," he adds. "We have to decide for ourselves what kind of country we want to live in."<br />(<a href="http://www.rferl.org/content/Czech_Mate_How_Russia_Is_Rebuilding_Influence_In_The_Former_Soviet_Bloc/2168090.html">Rferl</a>)Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-82235434156698020952010-08-20T19:36:00.004+02:002010-08-20T19:43:17.660+02:00ALTERNATIVE AFGHAN HISTORICAL LESSONS. (Lezioni storiche alternative sull'Afghanistan)<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrocqEuaEyBk23sY4NyKpNIub4nVeYPi5O6vUXpEmqsy6EKfcHXaqDqCkAl-0WAZZrmaLCuNMVfjMBKqO_Cv-1lvrLJ0gvPmA8n9Qw-l0BGchDsBTjnnJiX7fsL9TVkyh1sMUoZ1RcrjKC/s1600/_45475285_soviet1989466.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 192px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrocqEuaEyBk23sY4NyKpNIub4nVeYPi5O6vUXpEmqsy6EKfcHXaqDqCkAl-0WAZZrmaLCuNMVfjMBKqO_Cv-1lvrLJ0gvPmA8n9Qw-l0BGchDsBTjnnJiX7fsL9TVkyh1sMUoZ1RcrjKC/s320/_45475285_soviet1989466.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5507549014468769170" border="0" /></a>As the United States and its partners enter ten years of operations in Afghanistan this fall, there is a growing interest in the Soviet experience there during the 1980s. Unfortunately, the Soviet-Afghan war is remembered for US, Pakistani, and Saudi support of the mujahedeen, the importance of US stinger missiles, Soviet Retreat, and subsequent civil war giving rise to the Taliban. This ahistorical narrative neglects the efforts the Soviets made in building Afghan security forces, which sustained a socialist government in Kabul for two years after the Soviets withdrew.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />Lester Grau has been one of the few who fought the oversimplification of the Soviet-Afghan war and his work is important to understand operations from a Soviet perspective. Adding to this literature is a new article in the Journal of Slavic Military Studies. In an effort to review the Soviet experience without a Reaganesque lens, Anton Minkov and Gregory Smolynec have been researching and writing about Soviet state-building efforts in Afghanistan. Their latest article is "4-D Soviet Style: Defense, Development, Diplomacy and Disengagement in Afghanistan During the Soviet Period Part I: State Building." They review the various efforts the Soviets made to build an Afghan state through political, economic, and military means. The effort was at great cost to the Afghan people; by some estimates, over a million were killed and the legacy of landmines in Afghanistan persists today.<br /><br />Minkov and Smolynec make a good case that the Soviets did not expect the resistance they encountered and had hoped for a repeat of quick operations reminiscent of Prague 1968 or Budapest 1956. While they quickly achieved their military objectives and installed their preferred leader, the Soviets realized there were no quick solutions. Ultimately, they embarked on a state-building strategy that "envisioned establishing a strong communist party and affiliated mass organizations, which would control all state institutions, including the Afghan army, the police and the security services. The Afghan security forces, together with the Red Army, would apply pressure on the insurgency and expand government control in the countryside...[A crucial part] was working with the youth, educating a new generation..." The approach the Soviets pursued (minus the mass killings) seems familiar.<br /><br />When the Soviet left in 1989, they trained and equipped about 310,000 personnel from the army, border guards, police, and intelligence services. After 1985, the Red Army gradually ceded operational responsibility to the Afghan Army. Minkov and Smolynec concluded "by 1989 the Soviet leadership believed that Afghan forces could ensure continuity of the pro-Moscow regime on their own...[the Afghan Army] was able to hold its ground, and even achieved important victories, defeating mujahidin offensives against Jelalabad and Kabul during 1989 and 1990."<br /><br />The willingness to review Soviet lessons not only makes good historical sense, but also represents a good opportunity to reconsider one of the last chapters of the Cold War. In general, most analysts viewed the Soviet experience through Western eyes only concerned with Soviet defeat. By examining Soviet efforts in the context of supporting the Kabul government, building an Afghan state, there are important lessons to be learned. Unfortunately, the Soviet experience in Afghanistan was left to the dustbin of history; it is good to see analysts like Minkov and Smolynec are resurrecting this discussion to inform current thinking on Afghanistan.<br />(<a href="http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/100812644-learning-from-the-soviets.htm">GlobalSecurity</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-87439648992839697162010-08-10T01:32:00.006+02:002010-08-10T10:43:02.993+02:00AN ARABIC WAR OF DISINFORMATION? (Una guerra araba di disinformazione?)<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8CHYArYAqqxfP9wO8-cbTsm1sE7saG8pmFxT9elJM-Qi6QPMhw4wrdzwgpf394esLKKbHN3IN6c6TWSmdkOhtcSdWDpoqkJuDIrJCmgbgXpbUuzb4uPqOVh7GWH6Ax-Iu-bQETPqRIzdq/s1600/assad_abdullah_1007.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 179px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8CHYArYAqqxfP9wO8-cbTsm1sE7saG8pmFxT9elJM-Qi6QPMhw4wrdzwgpf394esLKKbHN3IN6c6TWSmdkOhtcSdWDpoqkJuDIrJCmgbgXpbUuzb4uPqOVh7GWH6Ax-Iu-bQETPqRIzdq/s320/assad_abdullah_1007.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5503558939953197202" border="0" /></a>Did King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia narrowly avoid being overthrown by a close member of his own royal family? That seems to be a rumor circulating around some political and intelligence circles in Washington as well as in the Middle East. A Saudi official however denied the allegations saying it was most likely Iranian disinformation.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />Indeed, there have been reports ¬- all unconfirmed -¬ that Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdel Aziz, a nephew of the king and former Saudi ambassador to Washington had attempted a coup and has since been under house arrest. Other sources said Bandar was detained in a Saudi prison. A Saudi official however told this reporter that the whole story was part of an Iranian disinformation campaign.<br /><br />“Utter nonsense” was how the official described the whole affair, adding that this was an ongoing struggle by Iran to discredit the Saudis and perturb efforts to reconcile Saudi Arabia and Syria, a move that would undoubtedly be to the detriment of the Iranian-Syrian love affair.<br /><br />Of course no one will go on the record to confirm or deny any of the allegations brought forward in this new Middle East muddle. Yet a number of tidbits are beginning to emerge allowing one to piece together a large jigsaw puzzle with many pieces still missing.<br /><br />One of the main components is the whereabouts of Prince Bandar. The former ambassador and head of the Saudi National Security Council has not been seen in public for many months. According to a Saudi official, however, Bandar is spending time on his ranch in Colorado.<br /><br />Yet what makes this story interesting are a number of strangely timed coincidences. In the dark world of espionage and intelligence gathering there is no such thing as a coincidence. Things usually happen for a good reason.<br /><br />The first item that deserves special attention is the sudden rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Syria. Why is that unusual? Because the two countries are as far apart as one can possibly imagine from every aspect of the political and social-economic field; and not too long ago it looked as though they were about to come to blows.<br /><br />This past week King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia made an official visit to Lebanon. This could have never happened had there not been a thawing between Syria and Saudi. Prior to <a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6lSaKzImFVip_UxBgN01ydSsyN9i6HHFg9qQeJh6VgeY4hw8OQiNMmNMQ4INMI77epiYHGbgGeQj4DyJASZl_0Ww93Ad3IWUAGf5ySFaWDWllL0vuBnkOxSq2rqHDCDfjDwMkEOCSLSzJ/s1600/saudi+syria+flag.jpg"><img style="float: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; cursor: pointer; width: 220px; height: 167px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6lSaKzImFVip_UxBgN01ydSsyN9i6HHFg9qQeJh6VgeY4hw8OQiNMmNMQ4INMI77epiYHGbgGeQj4DyJASZl_0Ww93Ad3IWUAGf5ySFaWDWllL0vuBnkOxSq2rqHDCDfjDwMkEOCSLSzJ/s320/saudi+syria+flag.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5503559003535518162" border="0" /></a>his visit to Beirut the Saudi king was in Morocco where he conferred with the deputy director of the Central Intelligence Agency.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">Last year the mood changed between Damascus and Riyadh quite suddenly. The Lebanese press dubbed this change in Syrian-Saudi relations as the “Seen-Seen” agreement for the way the letter “S” is pronounced in Arabic.<br /></div><br />What followed was a summit meeting between King Abdullah and President Bashar Assad of Syria. Sources in Beirut say the move came at the initiative of the Saudis who wanted better relations with the Syrians and wanted to defuse some of the tension that persisted in the region.<br /><br />The Syrian and the Lebanese press were filled with reports of all the positive steps the two Arab leaders had agreed to take but neither the Syrian nor the Saudi press alluded to the real deal that was reached by the two leaders at this meeting, according to reliable sources in Lebanon. In essence that was Syria’s “soft return to Lebanon” as one Lebanese official put it. A direct outcome of the Syrian-Saudi deal was the visit to Damascus by Saad Hariri, Lebanon’s prime minister and son of the assassinated leader.<br /><br />Acting in the spirit of this rapprochement Syria passed on to Saudi Arabia information that a member of the royal family was planning a coup d’état. The intelligence, it seems according to Middle East intelligence sources, came from Russian intelligence. And now, as they say, the plot thickens.<br /><br />In his new role as head of the National Security Council Prince Bandar had made a number of visits to Moscow to negotiate arms deals for Riyadh. Is that the Russian connection, if there is indeed one?<br /><br />Furthermore, as a sign of goodwill Syria told the Saudis that they would intervene in Yemen with the Houthi rebels fighting along the Saudi border. In return Syria asked the Saudis who have great influence with Hariri to use this influence to convince the Lebanese prime minister that it was in his interest to recognize the importance of Damascus. In return Syria needed to distance itself from accusations that it was responsible for the killing of Rafik Hariri.<br /><br />Before that could happen, another suspect had to be found: Enter Israel onto the scene.<br /><br />As was reported July 26, some 70 people in Lebanon were arrested for spying for Israel in recent months, including three officials of Alpha, a state-owned cellular phone company. Cellular communications transmitted through Alpha played a vital role in the investigation of Hariri’s murder. The three men admitted to have spied for Israel.<br /><br />In short, Saudi-Syrian relations are amended; Beirut is made to understand that there can be no circumventing Damascus; Syria is absolved of any implications in the killing of the former Lebanese prime minster with the blame now resting on the traditional enemy, Israel.<br /><br />Very convenient, but is that the truth? We may never know.<br /><br />Yet in this great muddle of spies, lies and broken alliances there may be a glitter of hope if the Seen-Seen deal (the Syrian-Saudi rapprochement) gives way to distancing Tehran from Damascus and lays the groundwork to allow Syria to move closer to the West.<br /><br />Could this be the reason why Iran might be trying to discredit the Saudis? This is one more unanswered question in the parallel war of disinformation.<br />(<a href="http://oilprice.com/Geo-Politics/Middle-East/A-Coup-in-Saudi-Avoided-or-Iranian-Disinformation.html">Oilprice.com</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-6670857437918884112010-05-24T14:43:00.004+02:002010-05-24T14:51:12.890+02:00THAI CRISIS BACKGROUND. (Il background della crisi tailandese)<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7aow3E4hADMJxoAj2BZbHLjcW45jYhsyzUbiJlfDmliPXERU4BX654iAttCQZfKKzZKgRhAB6eP3fV8TuxBZTxzkiSuWe-8sgsnSXKdAEYO6BwBErmmYtobEDwxBYgl6_jjGDuNn0cTHI/s1600/Thaksin_Shinawatra_463055c.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 205px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7aow3E4hADMJxoAj2BZbHLjcW45jYhsyzUbiJlfDmliPXERU4BX654iAttCQZfKKzZKgRhAB6eP3fV8TuxBZTxzkiSuWe-8sgsnSXKdAEYO6BwBErmmYtobEDwxBYgl6_jjGDuNn0cTHI/s320/Thaksin_Shinawatra_463055c.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5474818240038695298" border="0" /></a>La Thailandia è stata per secoli il ponte economico e culturale tra India e Cina, l’aristocrazia ha nomi di origine sanscrita, la gente mangia curry indiano, ma usa i bastoncini e i suoi imprenditori sono di origine cinese. La sua politica è un concentrato delle due civiltà e forse anche per questo è tortuosa, estremamente complicata, contorta come forse nessuna politica da altre parti del mondo.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />La crisi politica thailandese attuale affonda le sue radici in questa tradizione e in questo terreno ed ha certo più strati di una cipolla, per spiegarla semplicemente bisogna cominciare con i personaggi principali e poi le azioni.<br /><br />Ru Bhumibhol, classe 1928, al trono dal 1946. Il sovrano è il regnante più ricco del mondo, secondo Forbes, con una fortuna di 35 miliardi di dollari, per decenni lui e la sua corte sono stati l'ago della bilancia della politica thailandese ma lo sono stati in maniera defilata rispetto a una partecipazione politica diretta. In altre parole per decenni, in ultima istanza, ha tirato le fila della politica thailandese, attraverso la sua corte guardando passare decine di primi ministri, capi di coalizioni governo molto fragili e raccogliticce, e ben 18 colpi di stato. Il potere del re è controllato dalla costituzione, ma la corona è anche protetta da una legge molto severa sulla “lesa maestà”, che tutela il re in sostanza da ogni critica.<br /><br />L’equilibrio politico intorno al re si rompe nel 2005 quando Thaksin Shinawatra, per la prima volta nella storia del Siam, ha vinto un secondo mandato elettorale e per di più a maggioranza assoluta. In queste condizioni Thaksin poteva fare a meno del re.<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPFD1osZO4Glz8RgHLb0bBuwd_GQjQJ_mkgDln-XjL-X0vb8euZe-H-P62MhNEC6_kwP_vd3ujGlA2rulgwPJ_7etZot_1hP0ipwBRhv0dr01RpS7c85nC1LZW38JST1lntD7Q3VUU-U_j/s1600/red_yellow2.jpg"><img style="float: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; cursor: pointer; width: 195px; height: 200px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPFD1osZO4Glz8RgHLb0bBuwd_GQjQJ_mkgDln-XjL-X0vb8euZe-H-P62MhNEC6_kwP_vd3ujGlA2rulgwPJ_7etZot_1hP0ipwBRhv0dr01RpS7c85nC1LZW38JST1lntD7Q3VUU-U_j/s200/red_yellow2.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5474818135972236802" border="0" /></a><br /><br />Thaksin Shinawatra, classe 1949. Ex colonnello della polizia, ha lasciato la divisa e si è messo in affari, prima nei computer e poi nella telefonia mobile. A metà degli anni ’90 aveva una fortuna di circa 4 miliardi di dollari ed era padrone della maggiore rete telefonica del Sudest asiatico. Ha però ambizioni politiche e dopo la crisi finanziaria del 1997 fonda il partito “Thai rak Thai” (Thailandesi per la Thailandia) che vince le elezioni del 2001 e del 2005. Per la prima volta attua una serie di politiche a favore della maggioranza rurale del paese: nasce una piccola borghesia dei villaggi che gli rimane fedele. Thaksin però decide anche di tagliare linee di credito a grandi aziende malridotte per la crisi del 1997: la grande borghesia di Bangkok e la gente che sta loro attorno gli diventa ostile.<br /><br />Thaksin è accerchiato da accuse di corruzione e conflitto di interessi. Dopo la vittoria del 2005 vende la maggioranza delle azioni della sua società telefonica, Shin corp., all’azienda singaporeana Tamasek. Per non pagare tasse effettua la vendita attraverso società all’estero. Questa vendita e le mancate tasse danno origine di una serie di proteste di “camicie gialle”, persone che indossano quel colore in rispetto al re. Sono ultra-monarchici che accusano Thaksin di corruzione (perché non ha pagato le tasse), di tradimento (perché ha venduta la sua azienda a Singapore) e di “lesa maestà”, perché irrispettoso con il sovrano. I gialli chiedono le dimissioni di Thaksin e il ritorno alle urne. Thaksin scioglie le camere va alle elezioni e vince di nuovo. I gialli a questo punto riprendono le dimostrazioni e chiedono semplicemente le dimissioni di Thaksin, che<br />non recede.<br /><br />Nel settembre del 2006 i militari organizzano un colpo di stato, il primo dopo 15 anni, durante un viaggio a New York di Thaksin. Thaksin rimane all’estero. I militari fanno una riforma costituzionale, sciolgono il partito Thai rak Thai e bandiscono dalle elezioni oltre cento massimi dirigenti del partito. I due miliardi di dollari della vendita della Shin corp sono congelati. Quindi a dicembre del 2007 indicono nuove elezioni. Fedeli di Thaksin organizzano rapidamente un nuovo partito e vincono le elezioni contro il partito democratico, ben visto dalla corte.<br /><br />Nel 2008 riprendono le dimostrazioni dei gialli e si aprono dei casi giudiziari contro il premier in carica che viene costretto alle dimissioni. I filo thaksiniani ne nominano un altro ma anche questo subisce lo stesso destino. Intanto Thaksin ritorna in Thailandia, viene però presto chiamato in giudizio per corruzione, ma prima della condanna, ritorna all’estero. La tensione sale, fin quando, alla fine del 2008, alcuni thaksiniani si alleano ai democratici e va al potere il premier Abhisit.<br /><br />Due questioni rimangono però aperte, la minore, cosa fare della fortuna di Thaksin congelata, e poi una maggiore, come gestire la successione al trono. La corte infatti non vorrebbe come successore il principe ereditario Maha Vajiralonkorn, e preferirebbe invece una delle principesse. Il principe ha infatti una fama pessima di debosciato inaffidabile, mentre le principesse sono virtuose. Ma per cambiare la linea di successione bisogna cambiare la costituzione, cosa non semplicissima. Inoltre Maha è amico di Thaksin. La morte del re potrebbe significare quindi non solo il ritorno di Thaksin ma anche la fine di tanti cortigiani che per anni hanno lavorato per cambiare la legge di successione al trono.<br /><br />Dall’esilio però Thaksin organizza le camicie rosse, la risposta di movimento alle camicie gialle. Le camicie rosse, guidate da un ex generale, Khattiya, chiedono il ritorno alle urne e elezioni. Le camicie rosse fanno paura al governo composte da contadini militanti delle campagne del bellicoso Nordest, e per il loro leader. Khattiya è il generale con più esperienza di guerra dell’esercito Thai, ufficiale con la Cia degli insorti anti comunisti Hmong durante la guerra del Vietnam. Inoltre la richiesta di nuove elezioni è difficile da rinviare in eterno, e cambiamenti costituzionali, per la successione o per elezioni, sono complicati da portare avanti con una crescente protesta di piazza.<br /><br />Alla fine del 2009 il governo decide di “punire” Thaksin intentando una causa di confisca della sua fortuna come compensazione per l’accusa di corruzione. Il 26 febbraio del 2010 arriva la condanna: 1,4 miliardi circa sono confiscati, ma anche il resto perde di valore poiché le azioni della Shin corp crollano. Da quel punto in poi le proteste dei rossi si intensificano. In qualche modo Thaksin crede di non avere più nulla da perdere, e suoi luogotenenti pensano di dovere agire prima di essere completamente schiacciati dal governo. Incombe ancora una minaccia infatti: a settembre devono essere rinnovati i vertici militari, il governo che li rinnoverà, al di là del risultato delle elezioni, sarà il vero padrone del paese.<br /><br />I rossi a marzo intensificano le dimostrazioni chiedendo di andare subito alle urne, il governo resiste ma ad aprile risponde schierando l’esercito. L’esercito in effetti non ha voglia di reprimere le proteste. Sa che scorrerebbe del sangue e i generali sarebbero presto sacrificati dal governo che vorrebbe rifarsi una verginità con ufficiali “innocenti”. Manca poi una fiducia ampia nel sistema. Il re ha 82 anni, è in ospedale da settembre del 2009, potrebbe morire fra poco, tra sei mesi o un anno, ma di certo non durerà moltissimo, del principe si sa, quindi i generali attuali non vogliono sacrificarsi per una corte il cui equilibrio potrebbe presto mutare. D’altro canto proprio la prospettiva della successione mette urgenza agli anti Thaksin: devono eliminare rapidamente i rossi, consolidare la loro guida sull’esercito come premesse poi per eliminare il principe ereditario e sostituirlo con una principessa.<br /><br />L’esercito si prepara a reprimere e l’8 aprile c’è un primo avvitamento dello scontro. Qualcuno spara granate contro la folla, ci sono decine di morti e 800 feriti, ma il sangue non spaventa i rossi i quali anzi si fanno più determinati, guidati da Khattiya che promette di resistere e sostiene anzi di potere sconfiggere i soldati mandati contro di lui con tattiche di guerriglia urbana.<br /><br />Dopo la prima prova di forza fallita la situazione traccheggia per oltre un mese con tentativi di colloqui tra rossi e governo e nuovi scontri di piazza, allerte di repressioni ma senza confronti violentissimi come l’8 aprile. Il 12 maggio però un cecchino spara Khattiya alla testa mentre sta parlando con dei giornalisti. Khahttiya morirà poi il 16 senza riprendere conoscenza. Per molti dei rossi significa che non ci può essere più fiducia perché il governo assassina i suoi capi mentre colloqui sono in corso. Abhisit pensa che senza Khattiya la resistenza dei rossi si scioglierà, ma non è così. La situazione però continua a essere confusa perché il 16 maggio Abhisit proclama la legge marziale in alcune parti di Bangkok ma subito il capo dell’esercito generale Paochinda afferma che non c’è bisogno di legge marziale e quindi non la applica.<br /><br />Le prospettive di evoluzione sono confusissime ma di massima sono le seguenti. Se il governo si “arrende”, richiama l’esercito e proclama subito le elezioni i thaksiniani vincono a grande maggioranza, il potere della corte viene drasticamente ridotto, il principe ha assicurato il suo futuro al trono e di fatto la forma di governo della Thailandia cambierebbe in maniera radicale. Se il governo cerca la soluzione di forza e non si arrende i rossi sono pronti alla guerriglia, il Nord est potrebbe spaccarsi e molti soldati e ufficiali, originari di quella zona, potrebbero disertare. Il paese andrebbe alla guerra civile. Soluzioni intermedie sono possibili, ma tali possibilità si assottigliano con il passare dei giorni perché il governo pensa che se si arrende ha tutto da perdere, mentre i rossi, dopo l’assassinio di Khattiya, pensano che se cedono loro, saranno fatti fuori ad uno ad uno. Si tratterebbe di trovare un’alchimia che salvi qualcuno, ma tale alchimia è difficilissima da trovare.<br /><br />Le prospettive sono gravi per la regione. La Thailandia era il paese più ricco e democratico del sudest asiatico, se democrazia e benessere saltano qui è possibile che altri paesi, meno stabili e con una tradizione democratica più fragile, possano essere tentati a seguirne l’esempio. Ciò comporterebbe una involuzione politica ed economica in tutta la regione.<br /><br />Per la Birmania, governata dai generali, sarebbe una benedizione: sarebbero stati dei precursori non un’eccezione nella regione. Per l’America e l’occidente, ansiosi da 20 anni di esportare diritti umani in ogni angolo del pianeta, sarebbe una sconfitta di proporzioni incalcolabili. Avrebbero perso la democrazia e il benessere economico in un paese dove democrazia e benessere sarebbero stati difendibili, la Thailandia, e invece hanno tentato di esportare la democrazia sulla punta dei fucili in Iraq o Afghanistan, con risultati meno che insoddisfacenti. Il soft power americano subirebbe un colpo dolorosissimo. Ma anche il soft power cinese, grande potenza emergente globale, non avrebbe da festeggiare. Pechino da 30 anni ha promosso una politica di stabilità politica, e la Thailandia oggi è tutto fuorché stabile, e anzi rischia di infiammare la regione diminuendo prospettive di scambi economici con la dinamo commerciale e industriale cinese.<br />(<a href="http://temi.repubblica.it/limes/thailandia-il-tortuoso-cammino-politico-dal-1946/12848">Limes</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-43579861360258613602010-05-11T16:10:00.003+02:002010-05-11T16:24:41.446+02:00DENTAL DIPLOMACY. (Diplomazia dentistica)<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdv4oRCgo6hf3Rrd3o0_K7MrzYWloHnyNFLkXRmIwLF59Nwz0v6KxKQbHYsFAuDqxJoy9J4m414aTN3AFDGI-GMv93LPxasUngZYicUn1DX0CKok4hEMq1SqcLT8Tb96M0fy3N65IYJtt-/s1600/dental-health-6.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 219px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdv4oRCgo6hf3Rrd3o0_K7MrzYWloHnyNFLkXRmIwLF59Nwz0v6KxKQbHYsFAuDqxJoy9J4m414aTN3AFDGI-GMv93LPxasUngZYicUn1DX0CKok4hEMq1SqcLT8Tb96M0fy3N65IYJtt-/s320/dental-health-6.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5470017750615390258" border="0" /></a>Despite the glacial political relations between Athens and Skopje, residents of northern Greece are flocking across the border to find less expensive dental care, as well as other goods and services.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />The two Balkan neighbours remain at loggerheads over the name "Macedonia", but that has not stopped ordinary citizens from practicing their brand of economic diplomacy.<br /><br />According to Greek dental associations, private practices have seen as much as a 50% drop in business due to "dental excursions" to Bitola, Gevgelija or Strumica.<br /><br />The influence of the ongoing economic crisis is hard to gauge, though it is a growing factor. Nor is inexpensive dentistry the only draw. Many also come in search of cheaper petrol, or for recreation and entertainment.<br /><br />A customs officer, speaking on condition of anonymity, told SETimes that an average of 1,000 Greek citizens pass through the Evzoni border crossing on any given weekday, with the number doubling at the weekend.<br /><br />"It is the casino in Gevgelija," he said, referring to one of the many gambling establishments north of the border. He added that 500 Greek citizens, per day on average, cross the Niki border post, further west.<br /><br />Georgios Xanthopoulos, president of Florina's dentist association, has practiced dentistry for 27 years. He says the phenomenon of local residents making the 24km drive to Bitola for dental care began after 2000.<br /><br />"With the economic crisis in Greece, and especially with the situation in state-run dentistry here, people often sacrifice convenience for lower prices," Xanthopoulos told SETimes.<br /><br />He said many residents of the prefecture of Florina are insured by the civil servant's health fund, including the Public Power Corporation's large workforce. But the fund has frozen dental care reimbursements at 1994 prices.<br /><br />Although it costs around 50 euros to fill a tooth cavity, the state-run fund only pays beneficiaries 7 euros, Xanthopoulos said.<br /><br />In Bitola, he noted, the same procedure costs around 15 euros.<br /><br />Similarly, a fitted denture costs between 1,000 to 1,200 euros in Florina and Kilkis, but runs as low as 300 euros in Bitola. A routine root canal procedure is only reimbursed to the tune of 20 euros by the public sector health fund, whereas a Greek dentist charges a minimum of 150 euros.<br /><br />Among Florina residents who are not insured by the fund, there are "few to zero" instances of medical tourism, Xanthopoulos said. Foreign physicians can't prescribe medications, treatments or further diagnostic/clinical tests that local funds will approve or reimburse.<br /><br />The president of the Kilkis prefecture's dentist association, Charalambos Iakovidis, echoes his colleague's assessment. Iakovidis said he has already given three television interviews on the subject, and agrees business is definitely down because of lower prices available elsewhere.<br /><br />"People are heading across the border even on foot, as well as in organised coach tours. The impact on our prefecture is 50% or more," he told SETimes.<br /><br />Both dental association presidents insisted, however, that facilities are better in Greece and that Greek practitioners are more experienced.<br /><br />"CE certification exists here for equipment, something that is not required in the neighbouring country because dentists are not obliged to follow EU regulations and bylaws," Xanthopoulos said.<br /><br />He acknowledged, though, that the cost of living in general is dramatically lower in Bitola compared to Florina. "That's one reason that you'll even see wedding parties now being organised over there, as there are a lot of people here with relatives in the Bitola region, he said.<br />(<a href="http://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2010/05/07/feature-01">SETimes.com</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1922214526604223520.post-91396551847332852452010-05-06T13:59:00.004+02:002010-05-06T14:15:14.113+02:00POST-WAR IS NOT POST-CONFLICT. (La fine della guerra non è la fine del conflitto)<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_l5AT580_tVd12cjXMdcHkJ2tDMVS3JCG4-j4XlON1uvU8rhv_oEecNvtCEs6LagnVA4wkcEhJmt9z6BUXHT-M1uJLYZ1aMrmG50KcRYavDir6gxU2VQweoghRfmrsakOTa7BKsfOZHwb/s1600/Sri-Lankan-president-Mahi-001.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 192px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_l5AT580_tVd12cjXMdcHkJ2tDMVS3JCG4-j4XlON1uvU8rhv_oEecNvtCEs6LagnVA4wkcEhJmt9z6BUXHT-M1uJLYZ1aMrmG50KcRYavDir6gxU2VQweoghRfmrsakOTa7BKsfOZHwb/s320/Sri-Lankan-president-Mahi-001.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5468129055239100418" border="0" /></a>President Mahinda Rajapakse [<span style="font-style: italic;">of Sri Lanka, </span>ndr] claimed the victory was a success of his government’s national mission within the broader global ‘war against terrorism’ and claimed its strategy was a model other governments should follow in their fight against non-state armed groups.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />As security circles and governments around the globe consider whether military action with the aim of a ‘victorious peace’, the decisive defeat of one party, might not be a better option than investing in costly and fragile peace initiatives, opponents argue that a victorious peace can only be achieved at unacceptable costs. They also seriously doubt that such a costly victory can lead to lasting, or indeed just, peace.<br /><br />Sri Lanka is an exemplary case of a protracted ethno-political conflict according to Edward Azar, a prominent academic and former head of the Center for International Development and Conflict Management. Although the political representatives of the Singhalese majority grant the Tamil-speaking minority groups, the Sri Lankan Tamils, Muslims and Tamils of Indian origin, a status as “co-habiting” communities, they do not grant them the equal right to cooperate in the forming of a multi-ethnic state.<br /><br />After independence in 1948, a practically unitary Singhalese state was founded, establishing Buddhism as a constitutionally privileged religion. Tamil minorities were disadvantaged in the public sphere, the educational system and the economy. They also felt threatened by major irrigation and settling projects in areas where they traditionally lived.<br /><br />Challenges associated with demographics and access to power affected the Sri Lankan Tamils dramatically, particularly because of the privileged position they had held under British colonial rule. For the Singhalese, the post-colonial era represented an opportunity to finally claim their rights as the country’s majority. Singhalese and Tamil nationalism thus developed in parallel, and although initially tensions between the two parties were dealt with in parliament, lasting compromises became increasingly difficult to work out, allowing violent conflict to erupt.<br /><br />In both majority and minority politics, patterns of behavior, structures and attitudes developed which continually fired the confrontation. On the Singhalese side, one of those patterns can be described as “ethnic outbidding;” a process in which the Singhalese party in opposition undermined the governing party’s attempts at ethnic reconciliation.<br /><br />On the Tamil side similar patterns developed over the attractiveness of political options for their community. The core issue was whether Tamils should seek reforms within the existing political system, or strive for autonomy, federalism or even secession. In the 1970s and 80s radicalism increased, leading to the foundation of several militant Tamil organizations. The LTTE became the strongest force, mostly due to its decisiveness and the brutality with which it not only attacked the Sri Lankan military and state, but also parts of the Tamil movement that voiced differing opinions. Furthermore, they profited from secret support by the Indian government; a decision that Indian politicians would come to bitterly regret when in 1991 Premier Rajiv Gandhi was killed by an LTTE assassin.<br /><br />Parallel to the policy of “ethnic outbidding,” the LTTE strategy in Tamil politics could be described as “violence outbidding.” Confronted with the overwhelming dominance of Singhalese parties, and after a series of fruitless attempts to compromise politically, a large section of the Tamil community saw no other choice than to opt for violent resistance. The LTTE went one step further and claimed to be the “sole representative of the Tamil people,” a claim for which the community later had to pay a high price.<br /><br />“Ethnic outbidding” and “violence outbidding” are two sides of the same coin- both escalated the conflict. The representatives of both the majority and the minority in their fight for power acted according to a parallel rationale, giving rise to a conflict that could only lead to either mutual exhaustion or a victorious, costly peace.<br /><br />Like previous failed attempts at peace, those from 2002 to 2005 ended in deep disappointment. In the 2005 presidential election, the candidate of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) Mahinda Rajapakse revoked the ceasefire agreement of 2002. He demanded that the LTTE abandon their claims to territorial control in large parts of the northern and eastern provinces and renegotiate the vital parameters of earlier understandings. Although Ranil Wickramsinghe, the United National Party (UNP) candidate, had promised to continue the peace process, he lost partly because of an LTTE call to boycott the elections.<br /><br />The war that has been called 'Tamil Eelam War IV' began to develop in th<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipl7uSiJkqorb7RBckjwEEjB5ynrZVwfRa1SaZnqLyHI4Sa0JKsa6H1ROpcy3OMxWmxYNOPFweuA-QQmyZk2npPgLoUhIR2HPJ46pMBYllqnVsVeyS3xnODHwMzsyPsU7sLaOtbg6Gs6Cb/s1600/r361827_1670841.jpg"><img style="float: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; cursor: pointer; width: 200px; height: 134px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipl7uSiJkqorb7RBckjwEEjB5ynrZVwfRa1SaZnqLyHI4Sa0JKsa6H1ROpcy3OMxWmxYNOPFweuA-QQmyZk2npPgLoUhIR2HPJ46pMBYllqnVsVeyS3xnODHwMzsyPsU7sLaOtbg6Gs6Cb/s200/r361827_1670841.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5468129339569621842" border="0" /></a>e first half of 2006 with Rajapakse’s failed attempt to convince the LTTE that the practical conditions of the peace process had changed. Instead, the LTTE supplied the government with a good pretext for a major offensive by disrupting a large irrigation project in the Eastern Province. The government, however, had already decided to continue the war until the LTTE was completely extinguished; an aim that experts in Sri Lanka and abroad had thought impossible.<br /><br />The unexpected success of Rajapakse’s campaign is due to several factors, primarily divisions within the LTTE, massive increases in the military budget of the government and the increasing ruthlessness of their tactics, as well as considerable support from abroad in the shadow of the ‘war on terror.’<br /><br />The victory of the Sri Lankan military, however, has come at a high price. Between 20,000 and 40,000 combatants and as many as 25,0000 civilians, mainly Tamils, lost their lives in this war, according to UN sources. The government disputes these numbers. In the last months of the war, moreover, a dramatic crisis saw the LTTE taking more than 300,000 Tamil civilians hostage as it was retreating, preventing them from fleeing while government troops bombarded the areas, including self-declared no-fire zones. Over a quarter of a million survivors were subsequently interned in camps, cut off for from international aid organizations. Some 11,000 presumed LTTE cadres were interned separately without monitoring by the International Red Cross and without access to families or legal support.<br /><br />The government dismissed critical voices from abroad as typical of the double standard of western countries, which in their own fight against terrorism had resorted to drastic means as well. Demands for accountability in the face of grave human rights violations, moreover, were refused outright, sometimes with the argument that the reconciliation process within Sri Lanka would be disturbed by this. Admonitions to create a political solution now that the military solution had ended, e.g. to make the Tamils a generous offer of integration within a multi-ethnic Sri Lanka, were only accepted half-heartedly.<br /><br />The government’s top priority was to extend its own claim to power based on the victory of the LTTE. In the January presidential election and the general election in April, the government succeeded in this aim. Rajapakse gained a clear majority of votes and his party and their allies came close to a two-thirds majority in parliament. The election results also seemed to have cemented the deep separation of the country: While 60 percent of the Singhalese voted for Rajapakse, 65 percent of the minorities voted for the opposition candidate, former army commander Sarath Fonseka who was subsequently arrested and detained.<br /><br />After his election, Rajapakse declared that his government would continue the policy of reconciliation and development. To all questions regarding concrete plans for a political solution of the conflict, however, he simply referred to his election manifesto from January 2010, clearly rejecting a division of power on grounds of ethnicity.<br /><br />The current Sri Lankan government seems convinced that the rules and actions by which they have won the war can also effectively shape the post-war society. One of the rules they act by is "Whoever is not for us, is against us." It is doubtful whether this concept will be sufficient in the long run to unify Sri Lankan society with its ethnic, religious, social and political diversity and to make the country an “Exemplary 21st Century Asian State”, as described in the president’s January manifesto.<br /><br />According to most observers, the post-war situation is by no means a post-conflict situation. Quite the opposite, the wounds from the war have not healed, and the memory of it may be long lasting if there is no progress in the re-integration of the refugees and ex-combatants, or in dealing with the question of a political solution.<br /><br />Tamils, after nearly three decades of civil war with a huge number of victims, still considers themselves as second-class citizens. Nevertheless, during the next few years, after all the hardship of the past, their priority will be to live a ‘normal’ life. It is most unlikely though that they will accept their secondary status in the long run, the clearest indication of which is the continued support of a (Pan)-Tamil nationalism by Tamil Nadu, the neighboring Indian state. Tamil Nadu itself is an example of how federal concessions can successfully be demanded from a central government. What form the new resistance will take and whether there will be a new militant movement is unclear, however. It depends on what personal and political alternatives young Tamil men and women will see. At present they carry the burden of the victorious peace and its victims as the main parameters of their lives.<br /><br />The answer to the question of whether the victorious peace has resulted in either a successful victory against terrorism or just the prolongation of the conflict will therefore very much depend on the future of the Sri Lankan polity and its capacity to integrate the Tamil speaking communities as equal partners into the constitution and the political life of the country.<br />(<a href="http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Special-Reports/Sri-Lanka-Beyond-the-War/Analysis/">ISN</a>)<br /></div>Francesco Rossihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00435902442745728146noreply@blogger.com0